6th July 2020 - Bears trying to sneak in below 0.6950 but bulls give a healthy fight

Good Morning,

Market Headlines

It was a relatively quiet end to the week with rates and equity markets closed coinciding with the US Holiday (4th July). On the commodities front, Brent oil futures came off 0.8% to $42.80, copper dropped 1.3%, iron ore was up by 0.7% to $100.40, and gold fell 0.2%.


US Dollar Index finished 0.2% lower to close off the week.

EUR traded between 1.1220 and 1.1250.

AUD/EUR ranged between 0.6151 and 0.6182

USD/JPY traded between 107.45 and 107.55.

AUD ranged between 0.6930 to 0.6948.

NZD ranged between 0.65920 to 0.6539.

AUD/NZD traded between 1.0620 and 1.0640.

AUD Thoughts

- AUD/USD kicks off the week with a gap-down, seesawing around 0.6930.

- A surge in the virus cases, hospitalizations in the US, escalating Sino-American tension question market sentiment.

- Recent weakness of the US dollar, upbeat China data pleased Aussie bulls.

- June MI Inflation & ANZ Job Advertisements will be watched today, while RBA, China inflation will be the key for the week.

Unless breaking below 0.6900 mark, AUD/USD is likely to head to the upper-end of a three-week-old ascending triangle, at 0.6975. Also, the pair’s sustained trading beyond 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) enables it to cross the immediate hurdle and rise towards 0.7000 threshold. However, a downside break below 0.6900 might lure the sellers to attack the triangle’s support line, currently around 0.6865.

Event Risk Data Today

Australia: June MI Inflation & ANZ Job Ads.

New Zealand: ANZ Commodity Prices

Hong Kong: The Markit PMI

China: Foreign Reserves expected to rise from $3101bn in May to $3112bn in June.

Eurozone: Sentix Investor Confidence

US: Estimate for the June Markit services PMI with the market forecasting a stronger print for ISM non-manufacturing for June, 50.0 from 45.4 in May, largely driven by gains in business activity.

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