4th February 2021 - Dollar retains most weekly gains as the calendar heats up

Good Morning,

Market Headlines

Most major pair consolidate this Wednesday, with the greenback retaining most of its weekly gains. The dollar eased just modestly, still backed by hopes of a new US stimulus package. Democrats senators pushed forward with a coronavirus-aid package, aiming to pass legislation without Republicans support. Negotiations continue on the details of who will receive stimulus checks and for how much.

Commodities, Brent crude oil futures rose 1.5% to $58.30 – an 11-month high, copper rose 1.1%, iron ore rose 1.9% to $152.45, and gold fell 0.2%. Former ECB Chief Mario Draghi has been summoned by Italian President Sergio Mattarella, to try to form a new coalition government in the country after Giuseppe Conte resigned as prime minister last week.

The focus shifts to the Bank of England monetary policy decision and US employment data, ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Overnight Currency Ranges

AUD/USD: 0.7602 – 0.7626

EUR/USD: 1.2004 – 1.2043 (two month low)

GBP/USD: 1.3620 – 1.3678

USD/JPY: 104.97 – 105.10

USD/CAD: 1.2767 – 1.2810

NZD/USD: 0.7185 – 0.7219

AUD/JPY: 79.86 – 80.12

AUD/NZD: 1.0545 – 1.0594

AUD Thoughts

AUD traded in a tight 24 point range overnight meaning most order books remain unchanged. Demand is expected at 0.7540 and again at 0.7500 while offering interest rests between 0.7640/60.

Event Risk Data Today

Australia: The December Trade Balance will see the surplus snap back, to a forecast $7.7bn. Imports are expected to be flat, while exports finished the year with a flourish, up a forecast 7.5%.

New Zealand: December building permits are expected to ease 5.0% after recent gains, but annual issuance is still very high. Markets expect that the February ANZ Business Outlook survey will show that overall business conditions remain firm, but that conditions are uneven across the economy. Expectations continued firmness in sectors like construction, but softness in the services sector.

UK: The BoE will announce its February policy decision. Rates are expected to remain on hold, but the Bank may provide further guidance on the pace of bond purchases.

US: Initial jobless claims will be published for the week ended Jan 30 and are set to ease back to 830k. December factory orders should expand 0.7%, with equipment investment remaining strong in the early recovery. The FOMC’s Mester, Daly and Evans will speak.