4th August 2020 - AUD/USD: Off one-week low to regain 0.7100, eyes RBA

Good Morning,

Market Headlines

US equities maintained a positive sentiment overnight with the S&P500 up 0.7% to a fresh five-month high, and the NASDAQ100 to a record high. Commodities, Brent crude futures gained 0.9% to $43.95, copper gained 1.6%, and iron ore rose 5.2% to $116.35 (a 12-month high), while gold remained unchanged.


AUD/USD: 0.7077 – 0.7129

EUR/USD: 1.1695 – 1.1785

GBP/USD: 1.3005 – 1.3113

USD/JPY: 105.58 – 106.47

USD/CAD: 1.3383 – 1.3451

NZD/USD: 0.6575 – 0.6635

AUD/JPY: 75.07 – 75.50

AUD/NZD: 1.0718 – 1.0784

AUD Thoughts

- AUD/USD seesaws around 0.7120-32 after recovering from 0.7075.

- US dollar recovery, worsening coronavirus conditions in Victoria favoured short-term sellers earlier.

- RBA widely anticipated repeating the status-quo amid pandemic, Aussie Retail Sales and Trade Balance to also entertain pair trader.

- US stimulus talks, second-tier data and virus updates will also be watched.

Looking ahead, markets will keep eyes on the RBA’s monetary policy decision and Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP). While the policymakers are less likely to offer any surprises, the recent outbreak of the virus in Victoria might push them towards a dovish outlook, which in turn could extend the Australian dollar’s weakness.

Ahead of the RBA, Australia’s June month’s Retail Sales may confirm 2.4% preliminary forecast whereas Trade Balance can rise to 8,800M from 8,025M for the said month.

An ascending trend line from May 22, currently around 0.7075 precedes the 0.7065/60 support-zone, comprising June 10 high and July 24 low, to restrict the pair’s near-term downside. Alternatively, bulls have to dominate past-0.7200 to regain market confidence.

Event Risk Data Today

AU – June retail sales

AU – RBA meeting

CA – Markit manufacturing Survey

US – June durable goods and factory orders

Recent Posts

See All


This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision.  The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.Navigate Global Payments Pty Ltd nor its related parties or officers accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.