30th March 2021 - AUD/USD surrenders modest intraday gains, flat-lined around 0.7630 region

Good Morning,

Market Headlines

Risk-off dominated Monday, leading to modest dollar gains. The greenback advanced within limited ranges against most major rivals. Investors are cautious at the start of the week amid news that a hedge fund that had significant positions in different firms was forced to liquidate late on Friday. Credit Suisse and Nomura reported significant losses as a result of the $20 billion block-sale.

Another point of concern is US President Joe Biden’s spending plan, which may include $1 trillion in new tax hikes. Major indexes in Europe and the US were under pressure, ending the day mixed. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields resumed their advances. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit 1.72%, its highest in over a week.

Commodities, Brent crude oil futures rose 0.4% to $64.83, copper fell 0.9%, iron ore rose 3.7% to $167.25, and gold rose 1.4%.

Overnight Currency Ranges

AUD/USD 0.7616 0.7655

EUR/USD 1.1761 1.1795

GBP/USD 1.3757 1.3847

USD/JPY 109.38 109.82

NZD/USD 0.6973 0.7018

USD/CAD 1.2578 1.2627

USD/CNH 6.5375 6.5838

AUD/JPY 83.35 83.93

AUD/NZD 1.0895 1.0945

AUD Thoughts

The AUD/USD remained in a tight 0.7616/0.7655 range to start the week so all order books remain intact. Demand is expected to materialize if we drift toward 0.7550 while offering interest remains staggered from 0.7700-.7770.

Event Risk Data Today

Australia: The ABS will publish Weekly Payroll Jobs and Wages for the week ending 13 March.

NZ: Markets expect that building permits will fall by 5% in February. That’s due to an expected easing in the lumpy apartment consents category, which rose strongly in January. That would still leave issuance at very elevated levels.

Euro Area: March economic confidence will likely be crimped by the extended lockdowns (market f/c: 96.0).

US: January FHFA house prices (market f/c: 1.3%) and the S&P/CS home price index (market f/c: 1.2%) are expected to see robust growth, but softer home sales suggest that affordability may be weighing on turnover. March consumer confidence will be supported by the vaccine rollout and the economic reopening (market f/c: 96.0). The FOMC’s Quarles and Williams will speak.