29th September 2021 - AUD/USD holds lower ground after the biggest daily fall in two weeks

Market Headlines

US and European equities fell sharply as bond yields rose further. Fresh concerns included the risk of stagflation and the US debt ceiling. The S&P500 is down 1.5%, and the safe-haven US dollar is higher. US 2yr treasury yields ranged between 0.30% and 0.32% (a high since March 2020), while the 10yr yield rose from 1.50% to 1.57% - a three-month high. 10yr traded inflation (BEI) rose from 2.37% to 2.41% - near the top of the range since June. Australian 3yr government bond yields (futures) ranged between 0.46% and 0.49%, while the 10yr yield rose from 1.48% to 1.53% - a three-month high.

Commodities, Brent crude oil futures fell 0.7% to $79, copper fell 1.1%, gold fell 0.9%, and iron ore fell 4.6% to $113.

Overnight Currency Range

AUD/USD 0.7226 0.7311

EUR/USD 1.1668 1.1703

GBP/USD 1.3521 1.3717

USD/JPY 110.93 111.64

NZD/USD 0.6943 0.7027

USD/CAD 1.2594 1.2707

USD/CNH 6.4535 6.4668

AUD/JPY 80.45 81.30

AUD/NZD 1.0381 1.0426

AUD Thoughts

AUD/USD consolidates the heaviest daily slump in a fortnight around 0.7240 during early Wednesday morning in Asia. In doing so, the Aussie pair remains depressed around a lower band of the short-term trading range between 0.7320 and 0.7220.

Mounting concerns over the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) imminent tapering of bond purchases initially triggered Tuesday’s big fall before escalating fears concerning China and Evergrande weighed on the sentiment, as well as on the AUD/USD prices.

The mood worsened on downbeat data from China and the US and propelled the US 10-year Treasury yields to the highest levels since mid-June, underpinning the US Dollar Index three-day rally to a 10-month peak. It’s worth noting that the equity markets had to bear the burden of firmer yields and risk-off mood while commodities trade mixed.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell narrated inflation and employment stories to justify the central bank’s uttering of the word ‘taper’ during his testimony to Congress. Others from the Fed party followed the tune with their version in different public appearances. On the same line were the policymakers’ discomforts in extending the debt ceiling even as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of the empty pockets on October 18.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) tried to defend the money flow with heavy liquidity injection but the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) cited worries over the dragon nation’s economic growth by citing power cuts in addition to Evergrande problems.

The market fears got additional support from a softer print August Industrial Profit from China as well as the third month of weaker US CB Consumer Confidence, not to forget easy housing and Richmond Fed activity data. At home, the preliminary readings of Australia Retail Sales for August improved from -2.5% expected and -2.7% prior to -1.5% MoM.

Moving on, a lack of major data/events will keep AUD/USD traders mindful of the qualitative catalysts while trying to defend the short-term support. In doing so, the improvement in the covid conditions in Australia and faster jabbing may get attention. However, the hawkish Fed and China woes may challenge the bulls. The AUD/USD pair’s pullback from a convergence of the 50-DMA and 20-DMA, around 0.7320, looks to retest the lower end of the 100-pip trading range established since September 20, also comprising a one-month-old horizontal support line near 0.7220.

Event Risk Data Today

Euro Area: Supply constraints and shipping capacity may be headwinds for economic confidence in September (market f/c: 116.9).

US: Pending home sales in August are due for a slight uptick, with supply still a constraint (market f/c: 1.0%). Further, the FOMC’s Bullard and Bostic will provide their respective views on the economy

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