29 March 2022 -AUD ranged from a high of 0.7540 to a low of 0.7466


Market Headlines

A relatively quiet night on Wall Street with the NASDAQ trading +1.3%, while the S&P 500 was +.7%. US yields were flattish while crude oil fell 9% to $103.30 a barrel. AUD/USD traded from its high of 0.7540 to a low of 0.74665 before recovering to the 0.7495 region. The ASX closed 0.1% higher, with mining stocks leading the gains.


AUD/USD had a choppy session, closing at highs of 0.7540. USD/JPY was the focus, as it rallied following BOJ coming in to buy unlimited Japanese Government Bonds, trading to a high of 125.105. US yields on two-year Treasuries surged 14bp to 2.41%, while 10-year yields advanced 2bp to 2.49%. WTI crude fell 4.1% to $109.22 a barrel, amid demand concerns in China, following the lockdown of Shanghai.


Eurozone money markets are now pricing in 60bps of ECB rate hikes by year-end, up from last week’s 50bps. Japan’s Sakakibara commented that the current weak Yen is positive for Japan’s economy and that further weakening beyond 130 would cause problems. He added that BOJ rate hikes should be among the options to correct weak Yen beyond 130. US Wholesale Inventories for February rose 2.1% to beat expectations of a 1.2% gain. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for March printed at 8.7 to fall short of expectations of 11.0. No reaction to the data with risk generally softer over the NY morning as US futures moved into negative territory and yields reversed earlier gains.


Currencies

Following the open, AUD/USD retreated below 0.7510, NZD/USD edged lower to 0.6927. EUR/USD remained near daily highs of 1.0999 and GBP/USD was range bound around daily lows of 1.31275. USD/JPY fell back beneath 124.00 and USD/CAD bounced sharply off lows of 1.24735. BOE’s Bailey said the UK is facing a very large shock to income, and there is no policy tool to alleviate said shock. He added that he is seeing evidence of growth and demand slowing and that in this current circumstance tightening is appropriate. AUD/USD slipped below 0.7500 and moved to lows under 0.74665 while NZD/USD fell under 0.6890, EUR/USD fell to 1.0945 and GBP/USD made lows of 1.3055. USD/CAD up to 1.2593 in the move having been below 1.2500.


Currency ranges over the last 24 hours


Market Outlook

The market expects another relatively quiet day ahead with Australia’s retail sales for February the key event. Macquarie Strategy expect the numbers to have risen by around 0.5% m/m after surprisingly strong growth of +1.8% m/m in January. The market also expects that Quarterly ABS job vacancies may show a solid rise over the three months to February, with ANZ job ads increasing 1.8% over that period. Some weakness in the AUD/USD overnight saw it trade to a low of 0.74665 before recovering to the 0.7500 region. The market expects offering interest ahead of 0.7550 while demand should materialise ahead of 0.74c

Upcoming Events

• JP – Feb Jobless Rate

• AU – Feb Retail Sales m/m

• US – Mar Consumer Confidence

• US – Feb JOLTS Job Openings

• US – Fed’s Harker Speaks

Recent Posts

See All

Disclaimer

This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision.  The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.Navigate Global Payments Pty Ltd nor its related parties or officers accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.