28th May 2021 - AUD/USD: Stuck around 0.7750 amid risk-on mood, firmer US Treasury yields

Good Morning,

Market Headlines

Financial markets were in a better mood. US President Joe Bide is said to propose a $6 trillion budget, to invest in infrastructure, education, health care and more. Meanwhile, Senate Republicans unveiled a counteroffer of $928B infrastructure investment. Wall Street headed firmly up ahead of the opening, retreating afterwards but anyway ending the day in the green. Commodities, Brent crude oil futures rose 1.2% to $69.40, copper rose 3.1%, and gold rose 0.1%, while iron ore rose 5.3% to $187.55.

Overnight Currency Ranges

AUD/USD 0.7723 0.7757

EUR/USD 1.2175 1.2215

GBP/USD 1.4092 1.4220

USD/JPY 109.04 109.92

NZD/USD 0.7266 0.7311

USD/CAD 1.2057 1.2142

USD/CNH 6.3679 6.3925

AUD/JPY 84.35 85.05

AUD/NZD 1.0603 1.0637

AUD Thoughts

AUD/USD traded in a tight 0.7723/57 range overnight with demand still expected ahead of 0.77c while topside resistance should materialise between 0.7815/20.

Event Risk Data Today

New Zealand: Ahead of the May release, the ANZ consumer confidence index has been firming on the improvement in economic conditions. The monthly employment indicator is a relatively new release, based on data from income tax filings. Markets are expecting a 0.5% rise in filled jobs in April. Business surveys have pointed to a firming in hiring in recent months. In addition, the absence of international tourists will be less of a drag on the demand for workers through the middle part of the year, with the winter months typically the low season for visitor arrivals.

Euro Area: May economic confidence will be buoyed by the prospects of Europe’s H2 rebound (market f/c: 112.1).

US: April wholesale inventories are expected to rise 0.7%, and should be supportive of demand as we move through the year. April personal income should snap-back 14.3%, following a +21.1% spike from the stimulus in March. Meanwhile, personal spending is set to lift 0.5%. Against this backdrop, the April headline PCE deflator is expected to print a 0.5% gain on the month (3.5%yr), with the core PCE to post a similar monthly increase (market f/c: 0.6%mth, 2.9%yr). Finally, the May Chicago PMI is set to remain broadly stable at 68.0.

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