26th June 2020 - Shrugs off trade war, virus fears to battle 0.6900


Good Morning,

Market Headlines

Overnight Markets were fairly subdued overnight, with little fresh news for direction. The S&P 500 was down as much as 1.5% during the session before a late rally saw it close 1.1% up on the day. On the commodities front, Brent futures rose 2.3% to $41.20, copper rose 0.5%, iron ore was unchanged at $103.35, and gold rose 0.1%.

Currencies

The US dollar rose by 0.2% on the day.

EUR ranged between 1.1191 to 1.1230.

USD/JPY traded between 107.15 and 107.45.

AUD ranged between 0.6850 and 0.6890.

NZD ranged between 0.6405 and 0.6440.

AUD/NZD ranged between 1.0675 and 1.0715.

AUD Thoughts

- AUD/USD extends the late-US session recovery from 0.6865 to attack recent range resistance.

- US virus figures on the rise with Europe also reporting an increase in the numbers.

- Germany fights back to the US tariff threats.

- A light calendar, holiday in China could restrict the market moves, key risk catalysts remain on the driver’s seat.

A short-term symmetrical triangle between 0.6830 and 0.6950 restricts the pair’s immediate moves above the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support of 0.6665. Meanwhile, an upside break of the triangle can avail an intermediate halt near 0.6975 before aiming 0.7000 threshold and the monthly top near 0.7065.

Event Risk Data Today

New Zealand: June Consumer Confidence

China: Negative industrial profit growth (prior: -4.3%yr) suggests potential further stimulus measures being required to support state-owned and private business.

Japan: CPI expectations of a decrease from 0.4%yr in May to 0.3%yr this month as prices fall on subdued economic activity and fall in the oil price.

Singapore: Industrial production, market expectations of a drop to -7.1% (previous: 3.6%).

Europe: ECB employing stimulus measures to spur strong growth. Market expectations is to see growth rise 0.3% to 8.6% from 8.3%.

US: May PCE Core Deflato, May personal income and spending, June Uni of Michigan expectations

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