21st July 2020 - AUD/USD eyes June’s top above 0.7000 ahead of RBA minutes, Lowe’s speech


Good Morning,

Market Headlines

Market sentiment was relatively upbeat on the back of the NASDAQ100 & S&P500 gaining 0.8% to rise to a five-month high. Encouraging news on a potential Covid19 vaccine. EU recovery fund progress and additional US stimulus plans were positive factors, offsetting continued rise in virus cases.

Currencies

AUD/USD: 0.6981 – 0.7017

EUR/USD: 1.1403 – 1.1467

GBP/USD: 1.2543 – 1.2666

USD/JPY: 107.04 – 107.33

USD/CAD: 1.3526 – 1.3590

NZD/USD: 0.6552 – 0.6575

AUD/JPY: 74.84 – 75.28

AUD/NZD: 1.0657 – 1.0675

AUD Thoughts

- AUD/USD stays on the front foot above 0.7000 threshold.

- Broad US dollar weakness, hopes of further stimulus and vaccine hopes please the Aussie bulls.

- RBA minutes, Governor Lowe’s speech will in the spotlight


Looking ahead, minutes of the RBA’s latest monetary policy meeting, followed by Governor Philip Lowe’s speech will be crucial for immediate direction. Though, updates from the on-going European Union (EU) summit and virus headlines, not to forget the Sino-American news, should also be watched carefully as and when arise.

Unless slipping back below an ascending trend line from June 15, currently around 0.6905, sellers are likely to stay away. However, failures to cross June monthly tops or downside break of 0.7000 can pull the quote backward to a 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA level) of 0.6940. Alternatively, highs marked in June 2020 and July 2019, respectively near 0.7065 and 0.7085 can entertain the bulls ahead of 0.7100 round-figures.

Event Risk Data Today

AU – RBA Minutes

AU – RBA Governor Lowe speaking

JP – June CPI

UK – Public Sector Net Borrowing

US – June Chicago fed national Activity Index

CA – May Retail Sales

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