21st August 2020 - AUD/USD consolidates recent gains around 0.7200 amid mixed sentiment


Good Morning,

Market Headlines

US equities were initially rattled by disappointing economic data, but recovered to push the S&P500 up 0.5% and the NASDAQ to a fresh record high. Commodities, Brent crude futures fell 1.1% to $44.85, copper fell 1.1%, iron ore fell 0.2% to $128.35, and gold rose 1.2%.

Currencies

AUD/USD: 0.7137 – 0.7198

EUR/USD: 1.1803 – 1.1868

GBP/USD: 1.3065 – 1.3220

USD/JPY: 105.75 – 106.12

USD/CAD: 1.3170 – 1.3244

NZD/USD: 0.6489 – 0.6563

AUD/JPY: 75.58 – 76.14

AUD/NZD: 1.0936 – 1.1032

AUD Thoughts

- AUD/USD rose more than it lost after taking a U-turn from 0.7134.

- US-China trade deal talks likely happening “soon” despite political differences, America toughens stand on Iran.

- US Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey flashed downbeat figures.

- Commonwealth Bank PMI, Flash Retail Sales and US Markit PMIs will be the key data to watch.

An ascending trend line from August 03, currently near 0.7135, restricts the pair’s immediate downside ahead of the monthly bottom surrounding 0.7075. On the upside, sustained trading beyond 0.7200 will attack 0.7245 and the year 2019 top surrounding 0.7300. Overall, the view remains bullish unless the quote slips below 0.7065/60 area including June monthly high and July 24 low.

Event Risk Data Today

AU - Indicators point to a solid gain in July retail sales ahead of the Victorian lockdown. Market predicts a lift to 3.0%, from 2.7% in June. CBA PMI numbers to watch also

JP – July CPI inflation will remain weak in July (prior: 0.1%yr, market f/c: 0.3%yr). The Jibun Bank manufacturing and services PMIs remain weak, with both measures still below the 50 expansion/ contraction threshold (prior: 45.2 and 45.4 respectively).

UK –The surge in retail sales last month, 13.9%, is expected to be followed by a 2.0% gain in August, with many shops still struggling for foot traffic. New orders and increased new business volumes are expected to push manufacturing and services PMIs to their fastest pace of expansion since 2019 (prior: 53.3 and 56.5, market f/c: 54.0 and 57.0 respectively).

Eurozone - Markit manufacturing and services PMIs remain on a clear upward trend from the lows of April; manufacturing 51.8 to 52.7, and services 54.7 to 54.5CA – June Retail Sales

US - New orders rose sharply and exports returned to growth in July, aiding manufacturing. Services recorded a more modest pace of expansion. The market expects momentum to continue in August manufacturing and services PMI data (prior: 50.9 and 50.0, market f/c: 52.0 and 51.1 respectively). June saw the largest gain in existing home sales since the series began. Another gain is expected in July (prior: 20.7%, market f/c: 14.4%).

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