1st April 2021 - Dollar finishes Q1 on a strong note

Good Morning,

Market Headlines

US equity markets were upbeat as President Biden’s new stimulus plan was unveiled, the S&P500 currently up 0.8% on the day and at a fresh record high. President Biden released his well-flagged stimulus plan targeting transportation, renewable energy, manufacturing and climate change. The $2.25tr package of spending over the next eight years is in addition to the $1.9tr economic relief bill passed earlier this month. Spending would be funded by increased taxes: corporate taxes to 28% from 21%, and taxes on corporate earnings overseas to 21% from around 13%. Commodities, Brent crude oil futures fell 0.9% to $63.55, copper rose 0.3%, iron ore fell 0.7% to $164.25, and gold rose 1.4%.

Overnight Currency Ranges

AUD/USD 0.7588 0.7636

EUR/USD 1.1704 1.1760

GBP/USD 1.3717 1.3814

USD/JPY 110.28 110.97

NZD/USD 0.6965 0.7026

USD/CAD 1.2540 1.2632

USD/CNH 6.5556 6.5778

AUD/JPY 83.80 84.48

AUD/NZD 1.0865 1.0899

AUD Thoughts

The AUD/USD traded in a 0.7588/0.7636 range overnight with demand still expected ahead of 0.7550 while offering interest remains thick all the way to 0.7750.

Event Risk Data Today

Australia: March looks set to be another strong month for CoreLogic house prices, with the daily index pointing to a 2.5% increase, a 32yr high in terms of monthly gains. Sydney prices look to be up a thumping 3.6%. The latest upturn is also notably broad with all major capitals and regional areas posting strong gains – a price upswing this strong and synchronised has not been seen in many years. The March AiG PMI will continue to show the manufacturing sector’s brisk expansion on the sharp economic rebound. Preliminary estimate of retail sales showed a 1.1% decline in Feb. The final Feb release will include more granular detail that is likely to highlight the impact of 'mini-lockdowns' during the month in Vic and WA – sales up marginally across other states

NZ: ANZ consumer confidence remains low, but has been rising.

China: The March Caixin manufacturing PMI follows a strong result seen in the official survey.

US: Initial claims fell sharply last week, and we are looking for this downtrend to continue (market f/c: 675k). February construction spending is set to contract 1%; recent strength has been concentrated in residential. The March ISM manufacturing survey should continue to expand in line with other manufacturing surveys, with robust gains seen across the majority of subcomponents (market f/c: 61.5). Finally, the FOMC’s Harker will discuss community banks and Fintech.

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