Positive session overnight for US equities with the NASDAQ up 0.6% and the S&P 500 gaining 0.9% higher following on from further positive news of a potential vaccine. On the Commodities front, Crude gained+2.0%, Copper retreated by -1.7%, Wheat had a positive run gaining +4.7%, Sugar gained +4.4%, Iron ore marginally unchanged -0.1% and Gold finished off at $1811
AUD/USD: 0.6990 – 0.7038
EUR/USD: 1.1399 – 1.1452
GBP/USD: 1.2576 – 1.2649
USD/JPY: 106.67 – 107.16
AUD/JPY: 74.76 – 75.11
AUD/NZD: 1.0654 – 1.0689
AUD/USD defies pullback from 0.7038 with the bounce off 0.6993.
Vaccine hopes favour risk sentiment, the US dollar fails to cheer upbeat data amid virus woes.
Sino-American tension, COVID-19 spread in Melbourne caps the upside at monthly high.
Australia’s June month jobs report, Chinese Q2 GDP and Retail Sales are in the spotlight.
Markets will have eyes on a busy session this morning with Aussie Employment Numbers for June, followed by China’s second-quarter (Q2) GDP in focus. Australian Employment Change is expected to recover from -227.7K prior to 112.5K whereas Unemployment Rate could rise from 7.1% to 7.4%. Further, China’s Q2 GDP bears the market consensus of +2.1% versus -6.8% of previous readouts. Even if the data might immediately offer additional fuel to the pair’s current run-up, anticipated weakness in the coming months at home and likely escalating US-China tension might cap the gains. It should, however, be noted that the vaccine hopes may continue to support the risk-on mood and help the Aussie quote.
Repeated failures to stay strong past-0.7000 might not be a problem for the bulls aiming to cross June month high near 0.7065. However, the bears can re-enter if AUD/USD prices fall below 0.6920 comprising lows marked since July 07 and 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Event Risk Data Today
NZ – Q2 CPI
AU – June unemployment
CN – Q2 GDP
CN – June retail sales, industrial production and fixed assets
EU – ECB meeting
US – weekly jobless claims
US – June retail sales
US - July Philly Fed survey