16th July 2020 - AUD pierces 0.7000 with eyes on Aussie employment, China GDP

Good Morning,

Market Headlines

Positive session overnight for US equities with the NASDAQ up 0.6% and the S&P 500 gaining 0.9% higher following on from further positive news of a potential vaccine. On the Commodities front, Crude gained+2.0%, Copper retreated by -1.7%, Wheat had a positive run gaining +4.7%, Sugar gained +4.4%, Iron ore marginally unchanged -0.1% and Gold finished off at $1811


AUD/USD: 0.6990 – 0.7038

EUR/USD: 1.1399 – 1.1452

GBP/USD: 1.2576 – 1.2649

USD/JPY: 106.67 – 107.16

AUD/JPY: 74.76 – 75.11

AUD/NZD: 1.0654 – 1.0689

AUD Thoughts

  • AUD/USD defies pullback from 0.7038 with the bounce off 0.6993.

  • Vaccine hopes favour risk sentiment, the US dollar fails to cheer upbeat data amid virus woes.

  • Sino-American tension, COVID-19 spread in Melbourne caps the upside at monthly high.

  • Australia’s June month jobs report, Chinese Q2 GDP and Retail Sales are in the spotlight.

Markets will have eyes on a busy session this morning with Aussie Employment Numbers for June, followed by China’s second-quarter (Q2) GDP in focus. Australian Employment Change is expected to recover from -227.7K prior to 112.5K whereas Unemployment Rate could rise from 7.1% to 7.4%. Further, China’s Q2 GDP bears the market consensus of +2.1% versus -6.8% of previous readouts. Even if the data might immediately offer additional fuel to the pair’s current run-up, anticipated weakness in the coming months at home and likely escalating US-China tension might cap the gains. It should, however, be noted that the vaccine hopes may continue to support the risk-on mood and help the Aussie quote.

Repeated failures to stay strong past-0.7000 might not be a problem for the bulls aiming to cross June month high near 0.7065. However, the bears can re-enter if AUD/USD prices fall below 0.6920 comprising lows marked since July 07 and 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

Event Risk Data Today


AU – June unemployment


CN – June retail sales, industrial production and fixed assets

EU – ECB meeting

US – weekly jobless claims

US – June retail sales

US - July Philly Fed survey

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