15th October 2020 - AUD/USD opens 0.7160 ranges could be at risk today given the above speech/data


Good Morning,

Market Headlines

Wall Street's three major benchmarks fell on Wednesday as hopes faded away that an agreement for a fresh stimulus package could be reached in coming weeks. The Dow lost 0.58%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.66%. The Nasdaq dropped 0.8%. Commodities, Brent crude oil futures rose 2.1% to $43.35, copper rose 0.2%, iron ore fell 1.9% to $119.50, and gold rose 0.7%.

Currency

AUD/USD: 0.7154 – 0.7190

EUR/USD: 1.1719 – 1.1771

GBP/USD: 1.2865 – 1.3065

USD/JPY: 105.04 – 105.51

USD/CAD: 1.3116 – 1.3162

NZD/USD: 0.6646– 0.6682

AUD/JPY: 75.17 – 75.71

AUD/NZD: 1.0749 – 1.0780

AUD Thoughts

Local employment figures and a speech by RBA Governor Lowe are the highlights for today's calendar.

AUD/USD opens today near 0.7160 region although the recent ranges could be at risk today given the above speech and data. Offers from 0.7200 whilst initial bids can be expected from 0.7140/50 and again nearer 0.7100.

Event Risk Data Today

Australia: RBA Governor Lowe will speak at the online Citi Annual Investment Conference at 8.45am AEST.

Australia: August’s 111.0k increase in total employment surprised to the upside. For September, the market expect falls of 50k and 40k, respectively. Accordingly, with this decline in employment and our forecast of a flat participation rate, expectations the unemployment rate to edge up from 6.8% in August (market f/c: 7.0%). Oct MI inflation expectations are expected to remain at the low end of their historical range (prior: 3.1%).

China: Price pressures for both producers in the PPI (prior: -2.0%, market f/c: -1.8%) and consumers in the CPI (prior: 2.4%, market f/c: 1.9%) are expected to remain modest. On the credit front, New yuan loans are expected to see demand firm as the economic rebound continues (prior: 1280CNYbn, market f/c: 1680CNYbn).

Europe: A European Summit will be held in Brussels on Thursday-Friday, with COVID-19 and Brexit to be discussed.

US: Cautious optimism will be the theme in both the Phily Fed (prior: 15, market f/c: 14.5) and the Fed Empire State (prior: 17, market f/c: 15) activity surveys, with businesses adjusting to the pandemic operating environment. Initial jobless claims remain at 4x pre-virus levels, with the early Oct release expected to capture a two-week backlog of California claims (prior: 840k, market f/c: 825k).

US: The FOMC’s Bostic (0:00 AEST), Kaplan (02:00 AEST) and Quarles (02:00 AEST) will speak.

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