A subdued session and mixed results for US equities overnight with the NASDAQ gaining 1%, while the S&P 500 was 0.3% higher. Brent crude oil futures rose 0.5% to $50.20, copper fell 0.2%, iron ore fell 3.9% to $153.80 amid calls in China for official intervention, and gold fell 0.7%.
AUD/USD: 0.7533 – 0.7578 (2 ½ year high)
EUR/USD: 1.2123 – 1.2177
GBP/USD: 1.3210 – 1.3444
USD/JPY: 103.52 – 104.10
USD/CAD: 1.2720 – 1.2790
NZD/USD: 0.7077 – 0.7120 (3 year high)
AUD/JPY: 78.34 – 78.70
AUD/NZD: 1.0623 – 1.0653
AUD/USD remained buoyant overnight although the RSI’s are in overbought territory and bit of a topping pattern on Friday’s chart could indicate some imminent short term weakness. However, the key area to retain topside momentum remains the 0.7485-0.7500 area and longs won’t be too concerned until a break of these levels. Topside resistance can be found at 0.7573 and again at 0.7675.
Event Risk Data Today
Australia: The RBA will publish the Minutes of the December Monetary Policy Meeting – the Bank will remain in "watch–and–wait" mode after delivering November’s stimulus. Following this, the RBA’s Kearns (Head of Financial Stability) will speak at the Australasian Finance and Banking Conference. The Q4 AusChamber–Westpac business survey will provide an update on business conditions as the economy reopens. ABS Weekly Payrolls for the week-ended 25th November will be released; the recent collapse in small business payrolls has been key to soft prints.
New Zealand: The Q4 Westpac-McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Survey will capture several significant developments, including the easing of restrictions, the strengthening of activity, a rapid rise in house prices, and positive news around the development of a vaccine.
China: Key November releases will provide further insight into China’s recovery, including industrial production (market f/c: 2.3%yr YTD), retail sales (market f/c: -4.9%yr YTD), and fixed asset investment (market f/c: 2.6%yr YTD).
UK: The ILO unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 5.1% in October, but the furlough scheme will continue to provide support until March 2021.
US: The December Fed Empire State Index (market f/c: 6.9) and November industrial production (market f/c: 0.3%) will reveal the impact of surging cases and reimposed restrictions.