15th April 2021 - AUD/USD: Bulls await Australian jobs data near three-week top above 0.7700

Good Morning,

Market Headlines

US indexes rallied at the daily opening, reaching fresh all-time highs, although the three major indexes retreated ahead of the close, ending the day mixed near their opening levels. US Treasury yields fell to fresh weekly lows before bouncing some during US trading hours, ending the day little changed. Commodities, Brent crude oil futures rose 4.2% to $63.90, copper rose 1.9%, iron ore rose 0.3% to $172.40, and gold fell 0.5%.

Overnight Currency Ranges

AUD/USD 0.7635 0.7738

EUR/USD 1.1940 1.1987

GBP/USD 1.3750 1.3809

USD/JPY 108.75 109.09

NZD/USD 0.7048 0.7150

USD/CAD 1.2500 1.2576

USD/CNH 6.5258 6.5471

AUD/JPY 83.12 84.28

AUD/NZD 1.0799 1.0840

AUD Thoughts

AUD/USD picks up bids around 0.7730 while keeping the recent 20-pip range amid the early Thursday morning in Asia. The pair jumped to the most since late February to test the highest levels last seen on March 23 the previous day amid US dollar weakness, commodity strength and upbeat data at home

Markets attention turn to the March month’s employment figures with headlines Employment Change likely easing to 35K from 88.7K whereas Unemployment Rate may step back from 5.8% to 5.7%. Although no major surprises are expected, a blow to the downside may shake RBA’s employment beliefs and could reverse the previous day’s gains by the pair.

The overnight move in the AUD/USD saw a clean out in global order books. Offering interest is now expected to emerge as we push to 0.78c while demand has likely followed spot higher and rests back toward 0.7660.

Event Risk Data Today

Australia: The March ABS labour force survey will be released. Leading indicators of employment, such as weekly payrolls, job vacancies and the various business surveys all suggest labour demand continued to strengthen through March and into April. The market anticipates an employment gain of +35k , but there are upside risks to this forecast. Rising participation is muting the improvement in unemployment. A 0.1ppt increase in participation to 66.2% will hold the unemployment rate at 5.8%. Meanwhile, April MI inflation expectations will be supported by rising fuel costs.

New Zealand: The food price index should advance 0.8% in March, but prices have eased since Covid disruptions in mid-2020.

US: Initial jobless claims have been choppy of late, but the downtrend remains in place (market f/c: 700k). March retail sales (market f/c: 5.8%) and industrial production (market f/c: 2.5%) are both expected to lift following softer prints last month due to weather disruptions. Two regional Fed surveys, the Empire State index (market f/c: 19.2) and the Philly Fed index (market f/c: 40.9), should continue to reveal strong growth in pricing power, input costs, and new orders. Meanwhile, February business inventories will continue to accumulate as the economy recovers (market f/c: 0.5%). The NAHB housing market index has eased off its record high in November, but remains historically elevated (market f/c: 84.0). February net TIC flows are also due, following a rise in January on increased net holdings in China and Japan. Finally, Fed Vice Chair Clarida, and the FOMC’s Bostic, Daly, and Mester will speak.

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