14th August 2020 - AUD/USD eyes RBA’s Lowe, China data to keep recovery gains above 0.7100


Good Morning,

Market Headlines

The multi-month rally in equity markets stalled as the stalemate on US fiscal stimulus continued. Commodities, Brent crude futures fell 1.0% to $45.00, copper fell 3.7%, iron ore fell 0.3% to $121.65, while gold rose 1.6%.

Currencies

AUD/USD: 0.7137 – 0.7182

EUR/USD: 1.1794 – 1.1864

GBP/USD: 1.3046 – 1.3125

USD/JPY: 106.62 – 107.05

USD/CAD: 1.3193 – 1.3249

NZD/USD: 0.6538 – 0.6575

AUD/JPY: 76.27 – 76.70

AUD/NZD: 1.0901 – 1.0922

AUD Thoughts

- AUD/USD seesaws near 0.7150 after bouncing off 0.7135.

- Virus woes, US-China jitters and upbeat performance of the USD weighed on the quote.

- RBA Governor Lowe’s Testimony, China Industrial Production, Retail Sales are the main events.

Looking ahead, RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s Testimony in front of the House of Representatives' Standing Committee on Economics will precede China’s July month data-dump to direct the pair’s immediate moves. While RBA’s Lowe will be watched to gain extra clarifications on his latest bearish bias, China’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales also become important due to the trading bond between the two. The forecast suggests, Industrial Production to rise from 4.8% to 5.1% whereas Retail Sales may also recover from -1.8% to +0.1%.

The 21-day EMA, currently around 0.7120 restricts the pair’s immediate downside moves ahead of 0.7065/60 area comprising July 24 low and June 10 high. On the contrary, 0.7200 becomes immediate resistance ahead of the monthly top near 0.7245.

Event Risk Data Today

AU – RBA’s Lowe speaks

CN – July IP, retail sales and fixed asset investment

EU – Q2 employment

US – July retail sales

US – July IP

US – August Uni of Michigan sentiment

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