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Markets Today – 30 June 2022

MARKET WRAP – 30 June 2022

  • US equities were mixed as the S&P and Nasdaq lost ground, but the Dow held firm up 0.3%. Brent gave back recent gains to be trading around $115. Currencies were again on the back foot to the USD, pushing Euro to 1.0435 lows and AUD to 0.6862. Asian equities were lower on Wednesday, with the Nikkei -0.9% and Hang Seng down 1.9%. The ASX fell 0.9% on Wednesday, led by losses in the tech sector.
  • The Fed’s Mester said he wants to see US rates above 4% next year. Mester added that high inflation has been clouding consumer confidence in the US and that rate rises are very necessary to get inflation down, while advocating for a 75bp rate rise in July. European equities opened lower with the FTSE 100 -0.5% and DAX down 1.22%. US 10-year yields fell back to 3.15% and Brent crude was lower at $117.69. Into the NY open and headlines out of the NATO Summit in Madrid with the alliance formally inviting Finland and Sweden to join while also agreeing a new strategic concept that reflected a deteriorated relationship with Russia.
  • US Q1 GDP was revised down to -1.6% from a flash reading of -1.5% while Personal Consumption was revised down to 1.8m 3.1%. Core PCE however was revised up to 5.2% from 5.1%. Little reaction to the data with markets waiting for the panel discussion between Fed Chair Powell, BOE Governor Bailey and ECB President Lagarde. Across the event, Fed Governor Powell focussed on inflation and that the strength of the US economy would allow the Fed to raise rates to the level required to bring it back to 2%. He noted there would be pain from the process but the pain of not getting inflation back to target would be worse. Governor Bailey noted the UK was in a tough situation with a slowing economy but also noted the pain of not getting inflation under control was worse than doing so.
  • Wall St was mixed from the open with the Dow settling with 0.5% type gains over the NY morning though the S&P and Nasdaq were both near flat. Meanwhile, European markets remained heavy into the close with the FTSE the best performer as it lost a little over 0.1%. The Dow finished up circa 0.3%, however the S&P and Nasdaq didn’t fare as well closing marginally in the red.

 FX

  •  AUD/USD traded sideways around 0.6910 before falling to a low of 0.6878 as the USD strengthened across the board. Into the London lunch and AUD/USD fell back after rebounding from lows of 0.6862 and NZD/USD continued lower to 0.6226. EUR/USD fell from session highs of 1.05355, down towards 1.0513 after weaker than expected German inflation data. GBP/USD moved lower, reaching lows of 1.2143. USD/CAD bounced lower to 1.2855 while USD/JPY continued higher at 136.50.
  • Following the US data releases and commentary the greenback was stronger across the NY morning with USD/JPY up to 137.00 highs and levels last seen in 1998. EUR/USD slipped to lows of 1.0467, GBP/USD fell to 1.21055 and NZD/USD made lows of 0.6207 with the local unit matching earlier 0.6862 lows. USD/CAD up to 1.2900 highs in the move. Into the NY afternoon and EUR/USD remained offered and fell to new lows of 1.0435 though other majors generally recovered a little off their respective lows against the greenback leading into the Sydney morning. At the time of writing AUD/USD sits at 0.6878.

MARKET OUTLOOK

  • China’s June PMI will be released today, and the indices could rebound to above 50. For manufacturing, the two subindices worth watching are New Orders and Supplier’s Delivery Time. US Personal Income and Spending data is also scheduled for today, with personal consumption likely to have moderated relative to April’s strong +0.7% m/m reading.
  • The US PCE price index is expected today, and markets expect broad-based inflation is likely to have persisted in May, as was evident in the CPI data released earlier this month. Higher gasoline prices are expected to remain a key driver of headline inflation. Monthly core services are expected to have remained firm. Markets believe core goods inflation may show a stronger MoM gain. Nonetheless, the overall trend is expected to continue to show a deceleration. The trimmed mean PCE price index, a measure of underlying inflation, will be in focus for any further signs of broadening inflation.
  • AUD/USD has broken down through 0.6900 and now markets are looking for the support at 0.6850/60 that has held so far in 2022. Markets expect any bounces back above 0.6950 will see sellers re-emerge.

Overnight Currency Ranges 

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.6862 0.6920
EUR/USD 1.0435 1.0536
GBP/USD 1.2106 1.2212
USD/JPY 135.78 137.00
NZD/USD 0.6207 0.6257
USD/CAD 1.2844 1.2900
USD/CNH 6.6930 6.7176
AUD/JPY 93.43 94.30
AUD/NZD 1.1032 1.1070
DXY 104.35 105.14

Source Bloomberg

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