MARKET WRAP – 15th July 2022
- The risk tone had started off quite sour out of Europe and in wake of disappointing bank earnings which saw both JPMorgan (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) miss street expectations while US data saw a hot PPI print and a rise in initial jobless claims.
- However, the tone had turned throughout the afternoon after Fed hawks Waller and Bullard both announced they were still backing 75bps in July (for now) despite the hot June CPI report which reversed implied market pricing of 100bps to 30% from 70% earlier Thursday.
- The Dollar with DX hitting a fresh YTD high of 109.29 before paring to just above 108.50 at pixel time. The Euro hit new lows beneath parity at 0.9953 with messy Italian politics playing their part: PM Draghi is now set to address parliament on Monday after President Mattarella rejected his resignation.
- FED: Waller (voter) was cautious on calling for a 100bps hike, suggesting his base case is for 75bps still but he would be open to a larger hike if Retail Sales (due Friday) and housing activity data comes in strongly; he later added that inflation expectations data before the next meeting will also help shape his view on the hike increment.
- The Governor warned of the risks of overdoing it on rate hikes, whilst also saying he sees the neutral rate at 2.00-2.25%, below the Fed median of 2.5%. Another 75bp move from the Fed would take rates to 2.25-2.5%, so above the top end of his neutral view and perhaps a reason why he is hesitant to call for a 100bps hike despite the June CPI.
- Oil prices tumbled as risk soured in the morning to see WTI and Brent seeing lows of USD 90.56/bbl and 94.50/bbl, levels not seen since February, prior to the Ukraine invasion;
- Gold printed beneath USD 1,700/oz – and the majority of base metals were also all lower.
- AUD/USD trades in the 0.6740/50 region, recovering from a fresh 2022 low of 0.6680. A sell-off in Wall Street reverted after US Federal Reserve Governor Waller could down expectations for a 100 bps rate hike in July.
- The Dollar was bid Thursday to see the index hit a fresh YTD high of 109.29, a level not seen since 2002. The buck had been propped up in the European morning on Euro weakness amid the political uncertainty in Italy while the risk-off trade was also supportive.
- The greenback moved off highs in wake of Feds Waller who toned down market pricing for a 100bp Fed hike in July saying his base case is for 75bps although would be open to a larger hike if retail sales and housing activity data comes in strong, but he did suggest markets are getting ahead of themselves.