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Market Updates

Navigate Global Payments – Markets Today 13th July 2022

 

MARKET WRAP July 13 2022

  • US stock markets finished negative as global growth and COVID concerns lingered, while the upcoming risk events including Wednesday’s CPI data added to the cautious mood. DXY was choppy ahead of the inflation data but eventually returned flat with late support amid the soured risk tone, while EUR/USD bounced back after approaching parity.
  •  The brewing COVID backdrop and the poor German ZEW data were enough to sustain the global growth fear loop which hammered commodities lower and saw oil benchmarks slip beneath the USD 100/bbl figure.
  • In FX, the Dollar was choppy but ultimately flat, while EUR/USD bounced off parity, holding the linedespite an abysmal German ZEW survey that saw Bunds lifted.

FX

  • Dollar was choppy on Tuesday, but ultimately flat, after hitting a 20yr high of 108.56 earlier in the session, with market participants awaiting US CPI Wednesday, followed by retail sales on Friday. The releases will help participants gauge how much further Fed policy can (Dollar-bullishly) diverge from its peers such as the ECB and BoJ. Furthermore, a strong CPI print Wednesday and PPI on Thursday would keep the heat on the Fed to hike rates by 75bps again this month before slowing the tightening pace.
  • In the European morning AUD/USD hit a 2yr low of 0.6709, but the Aussie recovered some of these losses as the risk off tone averted, slightly.
  • EUR ended flat, but that tells only half the story, as EUR/USD tested parity, albeit momentarily, on Tuesday. Nonetheless, Euro looked almost certain to breach further beneath the historic level on more than one occasion as pressure built, but it survived the most severe test with some assistance via barrier defences following a gloomy ZEW survey that highlighted the extent of energy crisis contagion in Germany and across the Eurozone generally.


TODAY’S KEY RISK EVENTS

  • Looking ahead, highlights include New Zealand Food prices, RBNZ Rate Decision, BOK Rate Decision, Chinese Trade Data & Australian Supply. China Retail Sales –

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.67115 0.67785
EUR/USD 1.00005 1.0074
GBP/USD 1.18075 1.1914
USD/JPY 136.47 137.53
NZD/USD 0.61025 0.6145
USD/CAD 1.29845 1.305
USD/CNH 6.7239 6.753
AUD/JPY 91.92 92.66
AUD/NZD 1.0994 1.1033
DXY 107.843 108.562

 

Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX 0.1% 6606
SHANGHAI COMP -1.0% 3281
NIKKEI -1.8% 26337
FTSE 0.2% 7210
DAX 0.6% 12905
CAC 0.8% 6044
DOW JONES -0.6% 30981
S&P 500 -0.9% 3819
NASDAQ -0.9% 11265
VIX 4.3% 27.29
     
     
Commodity Daily % Change Closing Level
CRUDE OIL -8.1% 95.7
ICE NAT GAS 9.8% 244.0
GOLD -0.2% 1725.5
SILVER -0.6% 18.9
SGX IRON ORE 1.0% 106.1
CMX COPPER -5.0% 325.8
ICE SUGAR -0.9% 18.7
ICE COTTON -4.2% 244.0
CBT WHEAT -5.3% 811.5
BITCOIN -2.0% 19477.5
     
     
Rates Markets Yield Daily Change
US 2 YEAR 3.05% -2.6
US 10 YEAR 2.97% -2.3
AUST 2 YEAR 2.51% -9.3
AUST 10 YEAR 3.42% -9.4

 

   

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Disclaimer: This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711. The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice. Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors. This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith. Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract. This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer: The information contained in this email may provide general information. It does not have any regard to the financial situation or needs of any recipient(s) and must not be relied upon as financial product advice to any degree. You should consider seeking independent financial advice before making any decision based on this information. The information in this email and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made, based on the information available at the time of it being sent but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made in this email.

The content of this email is confidential and intended for the recipient(s) specified in the message only. It is strictly forbidden to share any part or all of this message with any third party, without a written consent of the sender. If you received this message by mistake, please reply to this message and follow with its deletion, so that we can ensure only appropriate recipients receive our communications.

Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

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Market Updates

Navigate Global Payments – Markets Today 12th July 2022

 

MARKET WRAP – July 12th 2022

  • China COVID woes, EUR/USD flirts with parity, NY Fed 1yr inflation expectations rise, 3yr infaltion set to fall; Fed Bullard & Bostic in favor of 75bp in July, Fed George spoke on risks of moving too fast;
  • AUD/USD trades near a fresh 2-year low of 0.6713, as demand for the greenback surged in a risk-averse scenario. On the other hand, global indexes settled in the red, weighing on the Aussie.
  • Fed speak saw George  reiterate her concerns about the Fed moving too fast, while Bostic (non-voter) and Bullard (2022 voter) reiterated calls for 75bps in July.
  • Bostic was encouraged by the fall in longer run inflation expectations after the NY Fed consumer survey saw 3yr inflation expectations decline, although the 1yr expectations rose to a series high.
  • Commodities, all felt the pressure of the Dollar bid, although oil did rise off lows into the settlement given stock indices found some earlier paring, only then to dip back to lows into the close, although oil failed to follow suit.

FX

  • The Dollar surged on Monday to print fresh YTD highs at 108.190, a level not seen since 2002. The move in the Dollar was supported by the risk-off tone in markets with equities lower while bonds were bid, although the higher yields did little to stop the greenback’s rise.
  • Risk off had started in Asia on renewed COVID/demand fears out of China where Macau shut all of their casinos and a Shanghai official announced additional areas of high risk areas.
  • Fed speak Monday saw George (2022 voter) warn moving rates too fast risks oversteering and noting communication the rate path is far more consequential than the speed of policy changes.
  • George appeared to lean back on faster tightening once again after she dissented in June voting for a 50bp hike rather than a 75bp move, she also warned that abrupt changes in rates could create strains in the economy.
  • Euro was put in the dust amid the Dollar bid as the cross looks ever closer to parity, touching a fresh low of 1.0042, a level not seen since 2002 as rate differentials, geopolitics, and recession fears continue to weigh on the cross while ING note fears of a Russian gas shutdown, hawkish Fed bets, and risk sentiment in general all argue against a recovery in the cross.
  • Yen weakened to a 24yr low against the rising greenback at 137.75 with the Boj’s ultra-easy policy settings set to remain as BoJ Governor Kuroda once again signaling the central bank is prepared to ease policy further without hesitation if needed while also warning the economy is showing signs of weakness, reiterating they will maintain their ultra-loose policy to stably achieve its 2% price target.


TODAY’S KEY RISK EVENTS

  • German ZEW Event: OPEC MOMR speakers: Fed’s Barkin; BOEs Bailey & Cunliffe supply: UK, Germany & US. NAB business confidence & Westpac consumer sentiment.

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.6716 0.6860
EUR/USD 1.00335 1.0183
GBP/USD 1.18675 1.2034
USD/JPY 135.985 137.75
NZD/USD 0.60975 0.6192
USD/CAD 1.2945 1.30515
USD/CNH 6.683 6.726
AUD/JPY 92.26 93.69
AUD/NZD 1.0998 1.1071
DXY 106.92 108.268

 

Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX -1.1% 6602
SHANGHAI COMP -1.3% 3314
NIKKEI 1.1% 26812
FTSE 0.0% 7197
DAX -1.4% 12832
CAC -0.6% 5996
DOW JONES -0.5% 31174
S&P 500 -1.3% 3850
NASDAQ -2.3% 11373
VIX 7.8% 26.57
Commodity Daily % Change Closing Level
CRUDE OIL -1.3% 103.5
ICE NAT GAS -13.0% 222.2
GOLD -0.1% 1732.8
SILVER -0.6% 19.1
SGX IRON ORE -2.0% 107.8
CMX COPPER -2.7% 342.6
ICE SUGAR -0.8% 18.9
ICE COTTON -0.8% 222.2
CBT WHEAT -4.1% 855.3
BITCOIN 0.5% 20514.2
Rates Markets Yield Daily Change
US 2 YEAR 3.06% -4.4
US 10 YEAR 2.98% -9.9
AUST 2 YEAR 2.61% 3.7
AUST 10 YEAR 3.51% 3.1

 

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Disclaimer: This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711. The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice. Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors. This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith. Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract. This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer: The information contained in this email may provide general information. It does not have any regard to the financial situation or needs of any recipient(s) and must not be relied upon as financial product advice to any degree. You should consider seeking independent financial advice before making any decision based on this information. The information in this email and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made, based on the information available at the time of it being sent but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made in this email.

The content of this email is confidential and intended for the recipient(s) specified in the message only. It is strictly forbidden to share any part or all of this message with any third party, without a written consent of the sender. If you received this message by mistake, please reply to this message and follow with its deletion, so that we can ensure only appropriate recipients receive our communications.

Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

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Market Updates

MARKET WRAP – 11th July 2022

 

MARKET WRAP – 11th  July 2022

  • Strong NFP print; Atlanta Fed raised GDP tracker, but still in contractionary territory; Feds Williams notes July will be a debate between 50 or 75bps, Fed Bostic supports 75bps.
  • NFP: The US jobs report was stronger than expected at 372k (exp. 268k), but it did slow somewhat from the prior 384k – but clearly not enough to spark concern.
  • Equities were somewhat choppy on NFP day but ultimately settled relatively flat after the headline beating NFP release sparked a typical hawkish reaction as markets started to price in a 75bps hike from the Fed in July with more certainty.
  • The Dollar was also flat but it did post a fresh YTD peak of 107.79 Overnight, before paring ahead of the release.
  • However, in a knee jerk reaction the Dollar reclaimed 107.50 after NFP but once again pared gains back to the psychological 107 level.
  • Attention now turns to the US CPI report this week to help settle the 50 or 75bps debate at the Feds July meeting. Fed’s Bostic on Friday said he was in the 75bps camp, while Williams said the debate will be around 50 or 75bps.
  • Looking ahead, the agency adds “these data are consistent with our strong view that the Fed’s September decision will be 25bp or 50bp “markets currently price-in 56bp.” In wake of the data, the Atlanta Fed GDP Now tracker was revised higher to -1.2% from -1.9%, still signaling a Q2 contraction.
  • Nonetheless, given the stronger than expected print it shows the labour market is holding up well against the Fed’s normalisation process and increases the odds of a 75bp move in July.

FX.

  • The AUD/USD is almost unchanged on Friday, amidst a positive tone in the market, as US equities rise but remain at the brink of turning red, on sudden market sentiment shift after June’s US employment report exceeded expectations, signaling that recession fears are overblown. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.6837.
  • EUR/USD has extended its slide to its lowest level in nearly two decades below 1.0100 in the early European session on Friday. The pair shows no signs of a convincing recovery and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the euro hit parity against the dollar at this point.
  • Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said on Friday that the bank could consider a bigger rate hike in September after raising rates by 25 basis points in July.


TODAY’S KEY RISK EVENTS
.

Source FX street

WEEKLY KEY RISK EVENTS

  • Tuesday, ZEW Survey
  • Wednesday, RBNZ Meeting
  • Thursday, US CPI – Bank of Canada Meeting, Australian Jobs
  • Friday, China GDP, US Retail Sales

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.6792 0.6873
EUR/USD 1.0072 1.01915
GBP/USD 1.1920 1.2055
USD/JPY 135.33 136.565
NZD/USD 0.6133 0.6204
USD/CAD 1.29365 1.3035
USD/CNH 6.6839 6.7905
AUD/JPY 92.30 93.48
AUD/NZD 1.1055 1.1095
DXY 106.805 107.786
     

 

Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX 0.5% 6678
SHANGHAI COMP -0.2% 3356
NIKKEI 0.1% 26517
FTSE 0.1% 7196
DAX 1.3% 13015
CAC 0.4% 6033
DOW JONES -0.1% 31338
S&P 500 -0.1% 3899
NASDAQ 0.1% 11635
VIX -5.5% 24.64
     
     
Commodity Daily % Change Closing Level
CRUDE OIL 2.0% 104.8
ICE NAT GAS -14.0% 255.5
GOLD 0.1% 1741.7
SILVER 0.4% 19.3
SGX IRON ORE -2.6% 110.0
CMX COPPER -1.6% 351.5
ICE SUGAR 2.7% 19.0
ICE COTTON 4.1% 95.6
CBT WHEAT 6.8% 893.3
BITCOIN 1.1% 21844.7
     
     
Rates Markets Yield Daily Change
US 2 YEAR 3.10% 8.6
US 10 YEAR 3.08% 8.2
AUST 2 YEAR 2.57% 5.7
AUST 10 YEAR 3.48% 1.0

Source Bloomberg

   

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Disclaimer: This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711. The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice. Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors. This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith. Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract. This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer: The information contained in this email may provide general information. It does not have any regard to the financial situation or needs of any recipient(s) and must not be relied upon as financial product advice to any degree. You should consider seeking independent financial advice before making any decision based on this information. The information in this email and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made, based on the information available at the time of it being sent but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made in this email.

The content of this email is confidential and intended for the recipient(s) specified in the message only. It is strictly forbidden to share any part or all of this message with any third party, without a written consent of the sender. If you received this message by mistake, please reply to this message and follow with its deletion, so that we can ensure only appropriate recipients receive our communications.

Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

Categories
Market Updates

Markets Today – 8th July 2022

 

 

MARKET WRAP – 8th July 2022

  • The AUD/USD pair benefited from the positive tone of global equities, recovering up to 0.6847 on Thursday. Concerns about economic growth and overheated inflation have been temporarily put aside, as the focus shifts to US employment data.

 

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.1% to 31,384.55, the S&P 500 was up 1.5% to 3,902.62 and the Nasdaq Composite was 2.3% higher at 11,621.35.

 

  • In the UK, Boris Johnson announced he will resign once a new party leader is chosen, after his own party sought his resignation amid a series of scandals. The pound rose as much as 0.6% on the news.

 

  • The US 10-year yield jumped 8.9 basis points to 3%.

 

  • Asian equities closed in the red across the board, with the Hang Seng the worst performer down 1.5%.  The ASX fell 0.5% on Wednesdays close, led by a 5.8% fall in the energy sector.

 

  • The seasonally adjusted number of initial unemployment claims advanced by 4,000 to 235,000, the highest level since Jan. 15, during the week ended July 2, the Department of Labor said Thursday. The consensus on Econoday was for 230,000. The previous week’s level was unrevised at 231,000.

 

  • Asian equities were higher across the board on the close, despite Shanghai reporting the highest number of Covid cases since May. The ASX finished Thursday’s session up 0.8%, buoyed by miners, stabilising oil and iron prices.

 

  • The BOE said that UK firms expect wages to rise 5.1% in the next year, while they expect they will increase prices by 6.3%. In a BOE poll, 1-year CPI inflation expectations are at 7.4%, and 3-year 4.0%. UK’s Obr said UK public debt is on an unsustainable path long term, adding that tax raises or spending cuts are needed by Treasury.

 

  • China is mulling a $220bn stimulus package with unprecedented bond sales. LME copper rallied as much as 3.6% on the release.

 

FX

  • DXY came under selling pressure following four consecutive daily advances and revisits the sub-107.00 area on Thursday.

 

  • EUR/USD trades near a fresh multi-year low of 1.0143, as ECB Meeting Accounts showed policymakers’ determination to move forward with their cautious stance on monetary policy.

 

  • GBP/USD has regathered bullish momentum and climbed above 1.2000 during the American session. BOE policymaker Catherine Mann said on Thursday that the uncertainty about the inflation process strengthens the case for front-loading interest rate rises.

 

  • USD/JPY edged lower on Thursday amid a modest USD pullback from a two-decade high. A positive risk tone undermined the safe-haven JPY and acted as a tailwind for the pair. The divergent Fed-BoJ policy stance supports prospects for the emergence of dip-buying.

 


                                                    TODAY’S KEY RISK EVENTS

  • US Non-Farm Payrolls will be the key risk event that FX traders will be focused on an hour before US market open tonight.  Chinese consumer prices will also have an impact on AUD but price action will have to wait till Monday morning to show the impact of the event.

                                                                                                          

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.6765 0.6848
EUR/USD 1.0145 1.0221
GBP/USD 1.1912 1.2030
USD/JPY 135.55 136.22
NZD/USD 0.6144 0.6194
USD/CAD 1.2963 1.3052
USD/CNH 6.6919 6.7200
AUD/JPY 91.86 93.16
AUD/NZD 1.1027 1.1080
DXY 106.714 107.235

 

Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX 0.8% 6648
SHANGHAI COMP 0.3% 3364
NIKKEI 1.5% 26491
FTSE 1.1% 7189
DAX 2.0% 12843
CAC 1.6% 6007
DOW JONES 1.1% 31385
S&P 500 1.5% 3903
NASDAQ 2.3% 11621
VIX -2.4% 26.08
 
     
Commodity Daily % Change Closing Level
CRUDE OIL 3.8% 102.2
ICE NAT GAS 7.9% 298.3
GOLD 0.1% 1740.4
SILVER 0.1% 19.2
SGX IRON ORE 0.1% 113.7
CMX COPPER 4.0% 354.5
ICE SUGAR 2.9% 18.5
ICE COTTON 3.7% 298.3
CBT WHEAT 4.1% 837.8
BITCOIN 0.05% 21,600
 
     
Rates Markets Yield Daily Change
US 2 YEAR 3.02% 0.18%
US 10 YEAR 3.00% 0.67%
AUST 2 YEAR 2.51% 0.68%
AUST 10 YEAR 3.47% 0.65%

Source – Bloomberg

   

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Disclaimer: This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711. The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice. Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors. This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith. Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract. This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

 

 

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this email may provide general information. It does not have any regard to the financial situation or needs of any recipient(s) and must not be relied upon as financial product advice to any degree. You should consider seeking independent financial advice before making any decision based on this information. The information in this email and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made, based on the information available at the time of it being sent but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made in this email.

The content of this email is confidential and intended for the recipient(s) specified in the message only. It is strictly forbidden to share any part or all of this message with any third party, without a written consent of the sender. If you received this message by mistake, please reply to this message and follow with its deletion, so that we can ensure only appropriate recipients receive our communications.

 

Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

Categories
Market Updates

Markets Today – 7th July 2022

 

MARKET WRAP – 7th July 2022

  • The AUD/USD pair seesaws between gains and losses but maintains the overall bearish trend in a risk-averse environment sitting at .6780.  Wall Street saved the day once again as US indexes got to bounce ahead of the close, preventing the pair from breaking lower.

 

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% to 31,037.68, the S&P 500 was up 0.4% to 3,845.08, and the Nasdaq Composite was 0.4% higher at 11,361.85.

 

  • The Fed minutes showed that almost all officials backed a 75bp hike at the June meeting with a view that another 50bp to 75bp move was likely.  Officials were also described as being “highly attentive” to inflation with concerns that if inflation expectations became unanchored then it would be more difficult and more costly to bring inflation back to target.

 

  • The US 10-year yield jumped 11.7 basis points to 2.93%.

 

  • Asian equities closed in the red across the board, with the Hang Seng the worst performer down 1.5%.  The ASX fell 0.5% on Wednesdays close, led by a 5.8% fall in the energy sector.

 

  • European equities opened largely higher with Eurostoxx 50 +1.8% and FTSE100 +1.6%.

 

  • US Services PMI for June was confirmed at 52.7, revised up from 51.6 with the Composite PMI revised up to 52.3 from 51.2. Released shortly afterwards, ISM Services for June printed at 55.3, down from 55.9 though well above expectations of 54.0.

 

  • BOE’s Hill commented that MPC are finely balanced in August and beyond, adding that the BOE is willing to act faster on tightening if it is needed.  He continued by saying unanimity about the short-term interest rate outlook no longer exists on MPC.  Pill said he thinks inflation expectations remain ‘anchored’, while he expects the UK to slow with no growth next year.

 

FX

  • DXY adds to the ongoing sharp uptick and leaves behind the 107.00 yardstick on Wednesday, reaching new YTD highs.

 

  • EUR/USD bottomed at a fresh two-decade low of 1.0160 on Tuesday, bouncing afterwards but holding below 1.0200. FOMC Minutes showed US policymakers are willing to become more restrictive if inflation persists. Growth forecast downwardly revised for this year and the next.

 

  • GBP/USD has bounced modestly from its intraday lows, maintaining the red. The dollar remains strong amid fears of a global recession, while the Pound suffers from a UK Government crisis after multiple cabinet members resigned.

 

  • USD/JPY edged lower on Wednesday, though lacked any follow-through selling. The USD surged to a fresh 20-year high and extended some support to the pair. A positive risk tone undermined the safe-haven JPY and also helped limit losses.

 


                                                    TODAY’S KEY RISK EVENTS

  • Aussie trade, import and export data will be in focus today.  US Employment numbers for the month of June will be released prior to market open.  We expect volatility in AUD after numbers are released for of both events.

                                                                                                          

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair             Low          High
AUD/USD 0.67615 0.6825
EUR/USD 1.01615 1.0277
GBP/USD 1.1877 1.199
USD/JPY 134.95 136.01
NZD/USD 0.6132 0.6191
USD/CAD 1.3013 1.3078
USD/CNH 6.7033 6.719
AUD/JPY 91.5 92.51
AUD/NZD 1.1012 1.1039
DXY 106.358 107.264

 

Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX -0.5% 6594
SHANGHAI COMP -1.4% 3355
NIKKEI -1.2% 26108
FTSE 1.2% 7108
DAX 1.6% 12595
CAC 2.0% 5912
DOW JONES 0.2% 31038
S&P 500 0.4% 3845
NASDAQ 0.3% 11362
VIX -2.9% 26.73
 
     
CRUDE OIL -1.1% 98.4
ICE NAT GAS -4.8% 276.4
GOLD -1.5% 1738.4
SILVER -0.1% 19.2
SGX IRON ORE -0.4% 110.7
CMX COPPER 0.7% 344.1
ICE SUGAR 1.1% 18.0
ICE COTTON -5.2% 276.4
CBT WHEAT 0.0% 806.8
BITCOIN -0.7% 20308.4
CRUDE OIL -1.1% 98.4
 
     
Rates Markets Yield Daily Change
US 2 YEAR 2.97% 15.2
US 10 YEAR 2.93% 12.0
AUST 2 YEAR 2.45% -4.0
AUST 10 YEAR 3.40% -14.4

Source – Bloomberg

   

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Disclaimer: This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711. The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice. Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors. This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith. Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract. This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

 

 

Kind regards,

Patrick Satorie

Corporate Account Manager

 

Level 12, 385 Bourke Street, Melbourne, VIC, 3000.

Office: +61 (3) 9063 0274

Mobile: +61 (0) 431 573 328

Email: psatorie@navigategp.com.au

Web: www.navigategp.com.au

 

ACN: 615 699 888 | AFSL: 502711

Disclaimer: The information contained in this email may provide general information. It does not have any regard to the financial situation or needs of any recipient(s) and must not be relied upon as financial product advice to any degree. You should consider seeking independent financial advice before making any decision based on this information. The information in this email and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made, based on the information available at the time of it being sent but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made in this email.

The content of this email is confidential and intended for the recipient(s) specified in the message only. It is strictly forbidden to share any part or all of this message with any third party, without a written consent of the sender. If you received this message by mistake, please reply to this message and follow with its deletion, so that we can ensure only appropriate recipients receive our communications.

 

Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

Categories
Market Updates

Markets Today – 6th July 2022

 

MARKET WRAP – 6th July 2022

  • The AUD/USD pair bounced from its lowest since June 2020, now struggling to recover the 0.6800 threshold. Wall Street managed to trim most of its early losses, putting a halt to the USD rally.

 

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.4% to 30,967.45, the S&P 500 edged up 0.2% to 3,831.59, and the Nasdaq Composite was 1.8% higher at 11,322.24.

 

  • The US 10-year yield plunged 6.9 basis points to 2.84%, reaching levels not seen since the end of May.

 

  • • Asian equities finished largely higher with the CSI300 underperforming its peers down -0.15%. The ASX was up 0.25% on Tuesday’s close, after the RBA raised rates 0.5% as expected to 1.35%.

 

  • • European equities opened higher with Eurostoxx 50 +0.7% and FTSE100 +0.4%. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries was little changed at 2.88%. Brent crude slipped below $113 per barrel. Bitcoin fell below $20,000.

 

  • In the US, May Factory Orders rose 1.6% MoM to beat forecasts of a 0.5% increase while Durable Goods Orders were revised up to 0.8% from an initial reading of 0.7%.

 

FX

  • DXY picks up extra pace and surpasses the 106.00 yardstick to print new cycle tops on Tuesday.  A fresh 20-year high was reached as the 107 DXY level was tested.

 

  • The EUR/USD pair collapsed amid fears of an EU recession, an energy crisis. Rush to safety benefited the greenback, which holds on to gains despite Wall Street trimming part of its early losses.

 

  • GBP/USD touched its weakest level since March 2020 near 1.1900 in the American session on Tuesday on relentless dollar strength. The Pound is further weighed by turmoil in Downing Street. Two senior cabinet ministers have just resigned, Sajid Javid and Rishi Sunak, jeopardizing Boris Johnson’s mandate.

 

  • USD/JPY gained traction for the second straight day, though the intraday uptick ran out of steam.  A turnaround in the risk sentiment benefitted the safe-haven JPY and capped the upside for the pair. The Fed-BoJ policy divergence should limit the downside ahead of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday.


                                          TODAY’S KEY RISK EVENTS

  • The FOMC will release the meeting minutes from their mid-June meeting today, which will provide further insight into the rationale underpinning the decision to hike the Fed funds rate by 75bps.  We expect more volatility for AUD and major currencies in overnight trading.

                                                                                                          

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair           Low          High
AUD/USD 0.6762 0.6895
EUR/USD 1.0236 1.0449
GBP/USD 1.1899 1.21255
USD/JPY 135.52 136.365
NZD/USD 0.6125 0.62265
USD/CAD 1.28435 1.30845
USD/CNH 6.6822 6.7243
AUD/JPY 91.69 93.98
AUD/NZD 1.1014 1.1076
DXY 105.051 106.792

 

Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX 0.3% 6629
SHANGHAI COMP 0.0% 3404
NIKKEI 1.0% 26423
FTSE -2.9% 7025
DAX -2.9% 12401
CAC -2.7% 5795
DOW JONES -0.4% 30968
S&P 500 0.2% 3831
NASDAQ 1.7% 11322
VIX 0.0% 27.54
 
     
Commodity Daily % Change Closing Level
CRUDE OIL -8.1% 99.7
ICE NAT GAS 2.9% 290.4
GOLD -2.3% 1765.9
SILVER -3.8% 19.2
SGX IRON ORE -3.3% 108.8
CMX COPPER -4.7% 343.5
ICE SUGAR -1.5% 17.8
ICE COTTON -4.1% 290.4
CBT WHEAT -4.9% 804.8
BITCOIN 4.0% 20537.2
 
     
Rates Markets Yield Daily Change
US 2 YEAR 2.82% -1.5
US 10 YEAR 2.81% -6.8
AUST 2 YEAR 2.48% 2.5
AUST 10 YEAR 3.55% -1.2

Source – Bloomberg

   

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Disclaimer: This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711. The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice. Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors. This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith. Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract. This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

 

 

Kind regards,

Patrick Satorie

Corporate Account Manager

 

Level 12, 385 Bourke Street, Melbourne, VIC, 3000.

Office: +61 (3) 9063 0274

Mobile: +61 (0) 431 573 328

Email: psatorie@navigategp.com.au

Web: www.navigategp.com.au

 

ACN: 615 699 888 | AFSL: 502711

Disclaimer: The information contained in this email may provide general information. It does not have any regard to the financial situation or needs of any recipient(s) and must not be relied upon as financial product advice to any degree. You should consider seeking independent financial advice before making any decision based on this information. The information in this email and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made, based on the information available at the time of it being sent but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made in this email.

The content of this email is confidential and intended for the recipient(s) specified in the message only. It is strictly forbidden to share any part or all of this message with any third party, without a written consent of the sender. If you received this message by mistake, please reply to this message and follow with its deletion, so that we can ensure only appropriate recipients receive our communications.

 

Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

Categories
Market Updates

Markets Today – 5th July 2022

 

MARKET WRAP – 5th July 2022

  • The AUD/USD pair recovered 100 pips from the 2-year low posted on Friday, holding on to gains and trading at around 0.6860. Market players are on hold ahead of the RBA monetary policy decision.

 

  • US equity benchmarks did not trade in observance of Independence Day.

 

  • Government bond yields continued a downward trajectory Friday as a closely monitored manufacturing gauge fell to its lowest level in two years in June.

 

  • Asian equities were mixed on Monday with the Nikkei +0.8% while the Hang Seng fell 0.1%. The ASX closed 1.1% higher, driven by gains in energy and real estate. AUD/USD climbed modestly during the day, from a low of 0.6796, reaching 0.6855 later in the session.

 

  • European equities opened with gains, with the FTSE climbing 0.9% and CAC up 0.7%. WTI Crude fell back slightly towards 107.93.

 

  • Euro-area May PPI came in slightly below expectations, rising 0.7% m/m (consensus +0.9%) and 36.3% y/y (+36.6%). The ECB said they are to tilt corporate bond holdings to reflect climate risk. Meanwhile the ECB’s Vasle said there will likely be more hikes in 4Q after September.

 

 

FX

  • DXY faces some moderate selling pressure and breaks below the 105.00 support at the beginning of the week.  Light volume to begin the week with no key risk events taking place yesterday.

 

  • EUR/USD trades around 1.0420 with a negative bias, as risk aversion undermines demand for the shared currency. EU inflation-related data and gas shortages add to the sour tone of the pair.

 

  • GBP/USD has reversed its direction in the second half of the day and erased a large portion of its daily gains. The pair trades within a touching distance of 1.2100 as the US Dollar Index holds above 105.00 despite subdued trading action.

 

  • USD/JPY bulls eye a move towards 136.20 and a touch higher even.  The price is making a double top on the daily chart and the bearish engulfing candle followed by a subsequent drive into the demand structure could be the foundation for a significant bearish correction in the coming days.


                                TODAY’S KEY RISK EVENTS

  • All eyes will be on Governor Lowe today as he announces the RBA’s interest rate decision.  Expectations are for a .50 basis point hike.

 

 

                                                                                                          

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.6796 0.68875
EUR/USD 1.0418 1.04625
GBP/USD 1.20895 1.2164
USD/JPY 134.795 135.77
NZD/USD 0.6197 0.6251
USD/CAD 1.2838 1.2903
USD/CNH 6.681 6.7072
AUD/JPY 91.56 93.28
AUD/NZD 1.0965 1.1055
DXY 104.815 105.252

 

Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX 1.1% 6613
SHANGHAI COMP 0.5% 3405
NIKKEI 0.8% 26154
FTSE 0.9% 7233
DAX -0.3% 12773
CAC 0.4% 5955
DOW JONES 1.0% 31097
S&P 500 1.1% 3825
NASDAQ 0.9% 11128
VIX 3.1% 27.53
Commodity Daily % Change Closing Level
CRUDE OIL 2.1% 110.7
ICE NAT GAS 17.1% 282.2
GOLD 0.3% 1816.5
SILVER 0.6% 20.0
SGX IRON ORE 2.8% 111.8
CMX COPPER -1.0% 356.7
ICE SUGAR -2.3% 18.1
ICE COTTON -1.4% 282.2
CBT WHEAT -4.3% 846.0
BITCOIN 1.7% 19756.7
Rates Markets Yield Daily Change
US 2 YEAR 2.83% 0.0
US 10 YEAR 2.88% 0.0
AUST 2 YEAR 2.46% -3.3
AUST 10 YEAR 3.56% -3.5

Source – Bloomberg

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Disclaimer: This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711. The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice. Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors. This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith. Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract. This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

 

Kind regards,

Patrick Satorie

Corporate Account Manager

 

Level 12, 385 Bourke Street, Melbourne, VIC, 3000.

Office: +61 (3) 9063 0274

Mobile: +61 (0) 431 573 328

Email: psatorie@navigategp.com.au

Web: www.navigategp.com.au

 

ACN: 615 699 888 | AFSL: 502711

Disclaimer: The information contained in this email may provide general information. It does not have any regard to the financial situation or needs of any recipient(s) and must not be relied upon as financial product advice to any degree. You should consider seeking independent financial advice before making any decision based on this information. The information in this email and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made, based on the information available at the time of it being sent but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made in this email.

The content of this email is confidential and intended for the recipient(s) specified in the message only. It is strictly forbidden to share any part or all of this message with any third party, without a written consent of the sender. If you received this message by mistake, please reply to this message and follow with its deletion, so that we can ensure only appropriate recipients receive our communications.

 

Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

Categories
Market Updates

Markets Today – 4th July 2022

 

MARKET WRAP – 4th July 2022

  • AUD/USD nose-dived to fresh YTD lows near 0.67633 after harmful US manufacturing data, thought as the New York session progressed has recovered some ground, and is closing to the 0.6800 figure. AUD/USD stays depressed finished the week with substantial losses of 2%.

 

  • US equity benchmarks were higher in the first session of the third quarter following Thursday’s slump that ended the worst first half of the year seen in decades.

 

  • Government bond yields continued a downward trajectory Friday as a closely monitored manufacturing gauge fell to its lowest level in two years in June.

 

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1% to 31,097.26, the S&P 500 was also up by 1.1% to 3,825.33, and the Nasdaq Composite was nearly 1% higher at 11,127.85.  For the week, the Dow was 1.3% lower, the S&P 500 dropped 2.2%, and the Nasdaq slumped 4%.

 

  • The Institute for Supply Management’s US manufacturing index fell to 53 from 56.1 in May, compared with expectations of 54.5 in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. ISM said Friday the headline reading, while still in expansionary territory, is the weakest since June 2020, when the world was in the throes of the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

  • The US 10-year yield dropped 8.5 basis points to 2.89%.

 

  • Oil prices surged, with front-month global benchmarks Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude each up around 2%, amid ongoing and expected supply disruptions in Libya and Norway.

 

FX

  • DXY resumes the upside and reclaims the area beyond 105.00 the figure at the end of the week, managing well to keep the trade in the 2-week highs zone.

 

  • EUR/USD was down some 0.5% on Friday due to the pick-up in pessimism about the global economic outlook.  The US dollar has found its feet yet again due to the demand for the safe-haven currency. The euro fell to a low of 1.0365 vs the greenback from a high close to the 1.05 area.

 

  • GBP/USD has lost its traction and declined toward 1.2100 after having registered modest gains on Thursday.  The pair remains technically bearish in the short term and it is likely to extend its slide unless there is a convincing improvement in risk mood.

 

  • USD/JPY witnessed selling for the second successive day and dropped closer to the weekly low. The overnight break through an ascending trend-line and 200-hour SMA favours bearish traders.  Mixed technical indicators warrant some caution before confirming a near-term top for the pair.


                               TODAY’S KEY RISK EVENTS

  • Most of the key risk events will take place later in the week as America celebrates Independence Day.  Trade Balance in Germany and building permits locally will provide some insight into the strength of the economy.

 

 

                                                                                                          

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.6764 0.6902
EUR/USD 1.0366 1.0486
GBP/USD 1.1976 1.21725
USD/JPY 134.75 135.99
NZD/USD 0.6150 0.6243
USD/CAD 1.2867 1.29665
USD/CNH 6.6957 6.7270
AUD/JPY 91.37 93.79
AUD/NZD 1.0968 1.1060
DXY 104.742 105.635

 

Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX -0.4% 6540
SHANGHAI COMP -0.3% 3388
NIKKEI -1.7% 25936
FTSE 0.0% 7169
DAX 0.2% 12813
CAC 0.1% 5931
DOW JONES 1.0% 31097
S&P 500 1.1% 3825
NASDAQ 0.9% 11128
VIX -6.8% 26.77
Commodity Daily % Change Closing Level
CRUDE OIL 2.5% 108.4
ICE NAT GAS -3.0% 240.9
GOLD 0.0% 1807.8
SILVER -2.0% 19.9
SGX IRON ORE -1.0% 113.5
CMX COPPER -2.5% 361.9
ICE SUGAR -2.3% 18.1
ICE COTTON -1.4% 97.5
CBT WHEAT -4.9% 841.0
BITCOIN 4.0% 19480.0
Rates Markets Yield Daily Change
US 2 YEAR 2.83% -12.2
US 10 YEAR 2.88% -13.4
AUST 2 YEAR 2.49% -13.8
AUST 10 YEAR 3.60% -6.5

Source – Bloomberg

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Disclaimer: This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711. The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice. Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors. This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith. Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract. This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

 

Kind regards,

Patrick Satorie

Corporate Account Manager

 

Level 12, 385 Bourke Street, Melbourne, VIC, 3000.

Office: +61 (3) 9063 0274

Mobile: +61 (0) 431 573 328

Email: psatorie@navigategp.com.au

Web: www.navigategp.com.au

 

ACN: 615 699 888 | AFSL: 502711

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Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

Categories
Market Updates

Markets Today – 1 July 2022

MARKET WRAP – 1 July 2022

The last day of trading for the quarter has seen some big moves. German bunds rallied hard, led by the short end on a combination of factors, including relief from no upside surprise to French CPI inflation, month-end buying, and safe-haven flows as the Euro Stoxx 600 fell 1½%. Germany’s unemployment rate shot up by 0.3 percentage points to 5.3% which looked alarming at face value, but the sharp reversal of trend was explained by refugees from the war in Ukraine adding to jobless claims. Germany’s bond market saw the 2-year rate down a massive 20bps to 0.61% and the 10-year rate down 18bps to 1.33%. The latter has traded a 60bps range of 1.33-1.93% in the past two weeks.

Traders continue to pare back how much tightening the ECB will do, with “only” 140bps of hikes priced for the four meetings left this year compared to 180bps priced two weeks ago. This dynamic dragged rates down right across Europe and spilled over into the Treasuries market. The weaker momentum suggests a lower contribution to Q2 GDP from private consumption, leading economists to revise down their estimates. Some Economists now expects Q2 GDP at an annualised minus 0.5%, following the 1.6% annualised contraction in Q1, reaching the definition of technical recession.

The Atlanta Fed GDP Now index fell to minus 1.01%. Morgan Stanley revised Q2 down from 2% to 0.3%, so whether the US economy prints two negative quarters in a row looks like a close call. Initial jobless claims remained close to a five-month high and yet another regional PMI, this time for Chicago, fell by more than expected. The monthly gain for the core PCE deflator was 0.3%, but 0.348% on unrounded figures which annualises to 4.3%, considered by markets to be too high for comfort. US Treasury yields are lower with the 2 and 10- year rates down 11bps, both now back below 3%. The US 10-year break even inflation rate is down 2bps to 2.37%, near its low for the year after a steep decline and after trading above 3% just over two months ago. This shows increasing confidence regarding the Fed to bring inflation sustainably down, supported by the more hawkish talk and determination in its part to do the job. The S&P500 has been whipsawing, opening on a weak note to be down over 2% at one stage, recovering to flat and back down 0.9% as we go to print.

FX

AUD/USD stages a recovery after plunging to fresh two-week lows around 0.6850s, reclaiming the 0.6900 figure, nearly gaining 0.60% on Thursday, after US inflation shows some signs of topping. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6900 during the Sydney open.

MARKET OUTLOOK

The AUD/USD remains in a downtrend, though slightly consolidating in the 0.6850-0.6950 range. Markets believe the major’s price action on Thursday is rising sharply, and a break above the June 30 high at 0.6920 might open the door for further gains, but markets expect solid resistance near 0.7000 will be challenging to overcome. Contrarily, markets believe a continuation to the downside is in play, though it would accelerate once sellers reclaim 0.6850, which is expected to send the pair tumbling towards the YTD low near 0.6828, followed by 0.6800.

Overnight Currency Ranges

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.68535 0.6918
EUR/USD 1.0381 1.0489
GBP/USD 1.2093 1.2189
USD/JPY 135.56 136.8
NZD/USD 0.6198 0.6253
USD/CAD 1.2861 1.2933
USD/CNH 6.6902 6.7116
AUD/JPY 93.29 94.28
AUD/NZD 1.1046 1.1089
DXY 104.645 105.541

Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

Categories
Market Updates

Markets Today – 30 June 2022

MARKET WRAP – 30 June 2022

  • US equities were mixed as the S&P and Nasdaq lost ground, but the Dow held firm up 0.3%. Brent gave back recent gains to be trading around $115. Currencies were again on the back foot to the USD, pushing Euro to 1.0435 lows and AUD to 0.6862. Asian equities were lower on Wednesday, with the Nikkei -0.9% and Hang Seng down 1.9%. The ASX fell 0.9% on Wednesday, led by losses in the tech sector.
  • The Fed’s Mester said he wants to see US rates above 4% next year. Mester added that high inflation has been clouding consumer confidence in the US and that rate rises are very necessary to get inflation down, while advocating for a 75bp rate rise in July. European equities opened lower with the FTSE 100 -0.5% and DAX down 1.22%. US 10-year yields fell back to 3.15% and Brent crude was lower at $117.69. Into the NY open and headlines out of the NATO Summit in Madrid with the alliance formally inviting Finland and Sweden to join while also agreeing a new strategic concept that reflected a deteriorated relationship with Russia.
  • US Q1 GDP was revised down to -1.6% from a flash reading of -1.5% while Personal Consumption was revised down to 1.8m 3.1%. Core PCE however was revised up to 5.2% from 5.1%. Little reaction to the data with markets waiting for the panel discussion between Fed Chair Powell, BOE Governor Bailey and ECB President Lagarde. Across the event, Fed Governor Powell focussed on inflation and that the strength of the US economy would allow the Fed to raise rates to the level required to bring it back to 2%. He noted there would be pain from the process but the pain of not getting inflation back to target would be worse. Governor Bailey noted the UK was in a tough situation with a slowing economy but also noted the pain of not getting inflation under control was worse than doing so.
  • Wall St was mixed from the open with the Dow settling with 0.5% type gains over the NY morning though the S&P and Nasdaq were both near flat. Meanwhile, European markets remained heavy into the close with the FTSE the best performer as it lost a little over 0.1%. The Dow finished up circa 0.3%, however the S&P and Nasdaq didn’t fare as well closing marginally in the red.

 FX

  •  AUD/USD traded sideways around 0.6910 before falling to a low of 0.6878 as the USD strengthened across the board. Into the London lunch and AUD/USD fell back after rebounding from lows of 0.6862 and NZD/USD continued lower to 0.6226. EUR/USD fell from session highs of 1.05355, down towards 1.0513 after weaker than expected German inflation data. GBP/USD moved lower, reaching lows of 1.2143. USD/CAD bounced lower to 1.2855 while USD/JPY continued higher at 136.50.
  • Following the US data releases and commentary the greenback was stronger across the NY morning with USD/JPY up to 137.00 highs and levels last seen in 1998. EUR/USD slipped to lows of 1.0467, GBP/USD fell to 1.21055 and NZD/USD made lows of 0.6207 with the local unit matching earlier 0.6862 lows. USD/CAD up to 1.2900 highs in the move. Into the NY afternoon and EUR/USD remained offered and fell to new lows of 1.0435 though other majors generally recovered a little off their respective lows against the greenback leading into the Sydney morning. At the time of writing AUD/USD sits at 0.6878.

MARKET OUTLOOK

  • China’s June PMI will be released today, and the indices could rebound to above 50. For manufacturing, the two subindices worth watching are New Orders and Supplier’s Delivery Time. US Personal Income and Spending data is also scheduled for today, with personal consumption likely to have moderated relative to April’s strong +0.7% m/m reading.
  • The US PCE price index is expected today, and markets expect broad-based inflation is likely to have persisted in May, as was evident in the CPI data released earlier this month. Higher gasoline prices are expected to remain a key driver of headline inflation. Monthly core services are expected to have remained firm. Markets believe core goods inflation may show a stronger MoM gain. Nonetheless, the overall trend is expected to continue to show a deceleration. The trimmed mean PCE price index, a measure of underlying inflation, will be in focus for any further signs of broadening inflation.
  • AUD/USD has broken down through 0.6900 and now markets are looking for the support at 0.6850/60 that has held so far in 2022. Markets expect any bounces back above 0.6950 will see sellers re-emerge.

Overnight Currency Ranges 

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.6862 0.6920
EUR/USD 1.0435 1.0536
GBP/USD 1.2106 1.2212
USD/JPY 135.78 137.00
NZD/USD 0.6207 0.6257
USD/CAD 1.2844 1.2900
USD/CNH 6.6930 6.7176
AUD/JPY 93.43 94.30
AUD/NZD 1.1032 1.1070
DXY 104.35 105.14

Source Bloomberg

Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.