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Market Updates

Navigate Global Payments – Markets Today 11th August 2022

MARKET WRAP – 11th August 2022

  • Softer than forecast inflation numbers from the US overnight spurred Wall St and drove heavy selling of the USD.The NASDAQ closed +2.7%, the S&P +2.1% while the Dow Jones finished the session +1.5%. US yields edged lower while crude oil gained 1.3% to $91.60 a barrel. The DXY closed 1.1% lower with the AUD/USD peaking at 0.7109 before settling at 0.7080.
  • Asian equities closed in the red with the CSI down 1.1%, as Chinese inflation hit a 2-year high of 2.7%, missing expectations of 2.9%. The ASX finished Wednesday’s session down 0.5%, with tech the largest contributor falling 3.8%. European equities fell on the open with the FTSE100 -0.3%, Eurostoxx 50 and DAX -0.6%. The 2-year US Treasury rate exceeds the 10-year by almost 50bps, the inversion, around the deepest since 2000. Brent crude fell 0.2% to $96.10 a barrel.
  • US CPI for July was flat MoM, down from 1.3% and below expectations of 0.2% with the YoY number at 8.5%, down from 9.1% and below expectations of 8.7%. Core measures also fell and were also lower than expected printing at 0.3% MoM and 5.9% YoY, both lower by 0.2% than consensus. Released later in the NY morning, US Wholesale Inventories for June were confirmed at 1.8% against expectations of 1.9%. No reaction to the second-tier data.
  • Fed’s Governor Evans hit the wires with some relatively hawkish comments from a known dove, outlining the strength of the US economy and noting that inflation was ”unacceptably high” and that the Fed would need to raise rates into 2023. Minneapolis Fed Reserve President Kashkari adding to the hawkish commentary in saying that the Fed had to get inflation back to 2% and was a long way of declaring victory, going on to add that a recession would not deter him from doing what was required and that the idea of cutting rates while inflation was so high was unrealistic. The comments saw US rates return almost to their pre-data levels while the greenback recovered off the lows though not before there were further modest gains for the antipodeans with the local unit reaching 0.7109 and NZD/USD topping out at 0.6434.

CURRENCIES OVERNIGHT

  • AUD/USD climbed from 0.6947 lows to finish the Asian session at new daily highs of 0.6975. The dollar was offered into London lunch, as markets awaited the US CPI print. AUD/USD traded sideways from daily highs of 0.69785. NZD/USD climbed to 0.6316 highs. GBP/USD and EUR/USD made new respective highs of 1.2106 and 1.0238. USD/CAD fell steadily to 1.2865. USD/JPY continued to trade either side of 134.90.
  • The USD sold off sharply in response to its softer numbers with US yields falling around 15bp across the curve. AUD/USD jumped almost 100 points to highs of 0.7067 while NZD/USD jumped to 0.6399. EUR/USD and GBP/USD both jumping around 1% to hit respective highs of 1.03465 and 1.2250. USD/CAD fell to 1.2819 with USD/JPY down to lows of 132.68. Elsewhere and equities liked the results with US futures jumping around 2% ahead of the cash open.
  • After a brief pause, the USD took another leg lower heading into the London rate set. AUD/USD traded up through 0.7100 to hit 0.7102 while NZD/USD reached 0.6429, EUR/USD broke through 1.0350 resistance to touch 1.0369 highs and GBP/USD topped out at 1.2277. USD/CAD fell to 1.2751 while USD/JPY fell to 1.3203.

Market Expectations

  • Domestic focus will be on the August Consumer inflation expectations. Markets will be watching consumer wages, previously consumers have reported seeing weak wages growth and expectations. The share of workers saying they have received a pay rise has been modest, and needs to increase, markets are waiting for this to pick up.
  • US PPI for July will be released tonight, markets expect the headline measure should show disinflation driven by a decline in energy prices during the month. The core (ex food and energy) measure could influence investor expectations for a more sustainable goods inflation to unfold over the course of 2H22
  • AUD/USD comfortably cleared significant offering interest on its way to a high of 0.7109 overnight. The first level of top side resistance comes in at 0.7170 which coincides with the 50% retracement of this year’s move. Markets expect recent resistance at 0.7000/20 will now act as downside support.

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.6947 0.7109
EUR/USD 1.0202 1.0369
GBP/USD 1.2066 1.2277
USD/JPY 132.03 135.3
NZD/USD 0.6277 0.6434
USD/CAD 1.2751 1.2894
USD/CNH 6.7163 6.765
AUD/JPY 93.43 94.76
AUD/NZD 1.1032 1.114
DXY 104.64 106.40

Source Bloomberg

Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX 0.1% 7030
SHANGHAI COMP 0.3% 3247
NIKKEI -0.9% 28000
FTSE 0.1% 7488
DAX -1.1% 13535
CAC -0.5% 6490
DOW JONES -0.2% 32774
S&P 500 -0.4% 4122
NASDAQ -1.2% 12494
VIX 2.3% 21.78
     
     
Commodity Daily % Change Closing Level
CRUDE OIL -0.2% 90.6
ICE NAT GAS 0.2% 406.2
GOLD 0.0% 1794.9
SILVER 0.3% 20.5
SGX IRON ORE 1.2% 110.9
CMX COPPER 0.0% 358.5
ICE SUGAR 0.1% 18.0
ICE COTTON 3.6% 406.2
CBT WHEAT 0.3% 781.8
BITCOIN 0.2% 23113.6
     
     
Rates Markets Yield Daily Change
US 2 YEAR 3.26% 5.4
US 10 YEAR 2.78% 2.2
AUST 2 YEAR 2.72% 2.3
AUST 10 YEAR 3.18% -2.9

Source Bloomberg

Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

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Market Updates

Navigate Global Payments – Markets Today 10th August 2022

MARKET WRAP – 10th August 2022

  • Wall Street was softer overnight with the NASDAQ leading the way at -1.2% while the S&P 500 fared a little better at -0.4%.  US yields edged higher ahead of tonight’s key US inflation reading while crude oil was relatively unchanged. Asian equities were mixed on the close with the Nikkei down 0.9% and CSI +0.2%. The ASX finished Tuesdays session +0.13%, closing at a 2-month high, driven largely by IT and communication stocks. AUD/USD had a choppy session, reaching 0.6993 highs after an improved NAB business condition and confidence reading for July.
  • European equities opened lower on Tuesday, with Euro Stoxx falling 0.3% and DAX down 0.4%. The US 10-year yield advanced, reaching 2.77%. Oil fell sharply with WTI Crude down 1.1% at $89.80, as traders factored in the chance that Iran could boost supply. The EU gas emergency plan came into effect, asking countries to voluntarily cut gas use by 15% this winter to prepare for a potential full Russian cut-off, the reductions could become mandatory in a supply emergency. Russia has suspended oil exports via the southern leg of Druzhba pipeline due to transit payment issues. Crude oil futures reversed their earlier declines trading up 1%.
  • US Q2 Non-Farm Productivity was -4.6% as expected though Unit Labour Costs rose by 10.8%, down from 12.7% though higher than expectations of 9.5%. Little reaction to the data with limited movement across the majors over the NY morning. Wall St meanwhile in the red in early trade with modest losses on the Dow and S&P while the Nasdaq was more than 1% lower. Headlines then that the UK was preparing for power cuts to industry and homes in January as part of its emergency gas plans.
  • European equities were little changed in late trade and closed with mixed results. The FTSE gained 0.1% on the day though the CAC shed 0.5% and losses on the DAX were more than 1% on the day. Wall Street remained soft into the close with the NASDAQ -1.2%, the S&P 500 -0.4% and the Dow Jones -0.2%.

Currencies Overnight

  • Currency markets were subdued overnight with AUD/USD      trading in a tight 0.6953/.69935 range. Moving into the London Lunch, AUD/USD fell back below 0.6970, while NZD/USD traded beneath 0.6280 having drifted off 0.6303 highs. EUR/USD and GBP/USD retreated from respective highs of 1.0248 and 1.2129. USD/JPY edged lower to trade just shy of 134.70 before recovering to 135.19 highs as NY arrived. USD/CAD meanwhile rebounded from 1.2844 lows.
  • GBP/USD choppy in the aftermath of the power cut talks, initially popping around 20 points to retest the highs before sliding to around 1.2080 into the London rate set. Little movement elsewhere though USD/CAD moved up to 1.2890 highs into the NY afternoon as crude oil reversed earlier gains.
  • Into the NY afternoon and the USD firmed across the board though markets were subdued. The local unit drifted down to touch new lows of 0.6953 ahead of the Sydney open while NZD/USD matched earlier lows. GBP/USD fell to 1.2063 while USD/CAD moved above 1.2900 with USD/JPY topping out at 135.20.

Market Expectations

 The focus this morning will be China’s CPI inflation data, which may approach 3% y/y in July after rising 2.5% y/y in June, as the price of pork was up over 30% from the previous month. Meanwhile, PPI inflation could moderate to around 4.5% y/y in July after rising 6.1% y/y in June, thanks to the sharp correction in commodity prices.

Attention will then move to the much-anticipated US CPI inflation release for July. The 8% decline in gasoline prices recorded in July should provide some relief to headline inflation. Nonetheless, markets expect core inflation to show continued strength underpinned by core services and rising shelter costs.

AUD/USD remained in a tight 0.6953/.69935 range overnight. The 0.7000/20 area remains as the immediate resistance with the falling trend line from mid-April. The lows from the previous~70c support level are now also acting as resistance. Downside 0.69c is the first target.

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.6953 0.69935
EUR/USD 1.0189 1.0248
GBP/USD 1.2063 1.2129
USD/JPY 134.67 135.2
NZD/USD 0.6272 0.6303
USD/CAD 1.2844 1.2901
USD/CNH 6.7535 6.7644
AUD/JPY 93.86 94.39
AUD/NZD 1.1083 1.1113
DXY 105.969 106.408

Source Bloomberg

Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX 0.1% 7030
SHANGHAI COMP 0.3% 3247
NIKKEI -0.9% 28000
FTSE 0.1% 7488
DAX -1.1% 13535
CAC -0.5% 6490
DOW JONES -0.2% 32774
S&P 500 -0.4% 4122
NASDAQ -1.2% 12494
VIX 2.3% 21.78
     
     
Commodity Daily % Change Closing Level
CRUDE OIL -0.2% 90.6
ICE NAT GAS 0.2% 406.2
GOLD 0.0% 1794.9
SILVER 0.3% 20.5
SGX IRON ORE 1.2% 110.9
CMX COPPER 0.0% 358.5
ICE SUGAR 0.1% 18.0
ICE COTTON 3.6% 406.2
CBT WHEAT 0.3% 781.8
BITCOIN 0.2% 23113.6
     
     
Rates Markets Yield Daily Change
US 2 YEAR 3.26% 5.4
US 10 YEAR 2.78% 2.2
AUST 2 YEAR 2.72% 2.3
AUST 10 YEAR 3.18% -2.9

Source Bloomberg

Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

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Market Updates

Navigate Global Payments – Markets Today 9th August 2022

MARKET WRAP – 9th August 2022

The dollar eased on Monday as government bond yields retreated, providing support to stock markets. Still, the absence of relevant news maintained US indexes seesawing within familiar levels. European indexes posted modest intraday gains, but Wall Street closed mixed.

Market players hold their breath ahead of the US Consumer Price Index to be released this Wednesday. Concerns about economic growth and aggressive tightening in the US re-surged on Friday after a strong job report. Investors are expected to make a reassessment of the situation after the release of inflation figures.

Tensions between Germany and Russia over natural gas delivery undermined demand for the shared currency. The EUR/USD pair flirted with the 1.0200 level and settled at around 1.0190.

GBP/USD ended the day pretty much unchanged at 1.2075. Commodity-lined currencies surged against their American rival, shedding some ground ahead of the close but holding to intraday gains. AUD/USD trades at around 0.6980, while USD/CAD is down to 1.2860. The USD/JPY pair hovers around 135.00, while USD/CHF trades at 0.9560. Spot gold retained gains at the end of the day at settled at $1,788 a troy ounce. Crude oil prices posted a modest advance, with WTI currently trading at $90.50 a barrel.

Market Expectations

The Australian economic docket will feature July’s NAB Business Conditions and Business Confidence. On the US front, the US calendar will feature July’s CPI, and PPI data on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. That, alongside further Fed commentary led by Charles Evans, Neil Kashkari, and Mary Daly, would shed some light regarding the posture of the central bank. The AUD/USD pair is hovering around the 50% retracement of its 0.7282/0.6680 slide at 0.6980.

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.6969 0.7001
EUR/USD 1.0187 1.0217
GBP/USD 1.2070 1.2123
USD/JPY 134.40 135.07
NZD/USD 0.6259 0.6299
USD/CAD 1.2864 1.2984
USD/CNH 6.7468 6.7686
AUD/JPY 93.97 94.35
AUD/NZD 1.1092 1.1119
DXY 106.38 106.50

Source Bloomberg

 

Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

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Market Updates

Navigate Global Payments – Markets Today 8th August 2022

MARKET WRAP – 8th August 2022

  • A bumper employment report from the U.S spurred yields and weighed on equity markets into the weekend.  The change in payrolls of +528k far outweighed expectation of +250k and helped US 2- and 10-year yields to climb 18bps and 14bps respectively. The NASDAQ closed down 0.5% while the S&P 500 was down .2%. Crude oil was up 0.5% and closed at $89 a barrel. The higher yields saw solid buying in the USD which pushed the AUD/USD to a low of .6870 before closing at .6911.
  • Asian equities closed higher on Friday. The ASX finished the session up 0.6% to close the week at a two-month high. European equities opened the session marginally higher, with the CAC 40 +0.1% and Euro Stoxx 50 flat. Wall St opened in the red, with the DOW -0.7%, S&P -1.1% and NASDAQ -1.5%. European equities were down on the close with 0.6% type losses. Wall St closed largely down, with the DOW outperforming up 0.2%. Currencies were subdued following the NFP release, finishing the week near the lows of the day.
  • In a Bloomberg interview, the BOE’s Huw Pill said gas price increases are feeding UK inflation, and that if the BOE can get inflation to the target, interest rates will be a slightly positive premium to inflation. China announced countermeasures over Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, including that it will halt climate change talks with the US, as well as cancelling military dialogue and halting cooperation on crime fight.
  • The US dollar was stronger across the board after the release of their data, with the antipodes falling to respective lows of 0.68845 and 0.6221. EUR/USD traded to 1.0154 while GBP/USD made new daily lows of 1.2025. USD/JPY jumped to 134.86, as USD/CAD climbed sharply to 1.29655 highs. AUD/USD spent the Friday night session trading sideways between a low of 0.69525 and high of 0.69745. Into Europe and the AUD/USD traded just off session lows at 0.6949 and NZD/USD traded at the day’s mid-range at 0.6296. EUR/USD gained gradually, trading at 1.0238 and GBP/USD traded sideways at 1.2140. USD/CAD was near session highs at 1.2890 and USD/JPY was at 133.10.

TODAY’S KEY RISK EVENTS

  • NZ – 2-year inflation expectations
  • CN – Aggregate Financing CNY
  • CN – Money Supply y/y
  • CN – New Yuan Loans CNY
  • CN – FDI YTD
  • CN – 1-year medium term lending facilities volume and rate

Market Expections

In China today credit growth data will be released while the PBoC will announce their 1-year MLF rate. Corporate long-term loans may have accelerated further in July, as policy supports come into effect. Markets expect the PBoC to keep the benchmark 1-year MLF rate unchanged, as it is constrained by the ongoing Fed rate hiking cycle.

Later in the week, US CPI for July will be released and the 8% decline in gasoline prices should provide some relief to headline inflation.

The AUD/USD traded in a .6870/.69745 range on Friday with demand still expected ahead of .6850 while topside resistance can be found at .7030/40.

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.687 0.6974
EUR/USD 1.0142 1.0251
GBP/USD 1.2004 1.2168
USD/JPY 132.53 135.52
NZD/USD 0.6215 0.6308
USD/CAD 1.2864 1.2984
USD/CNH 6.7468 6.7686
AUD/JPY 92.2 93.61
AUD/NZD 1.1036 1.1077
DXY 105.69 106.93

 

Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX 0.6% 7016
SHANGHAI COMP 1.2% 3227
NIKKEI 0.9% 28176
FTSE -0.1% 7440
DAX -0.6% 13574
CAC -0.6% 6472
DOW JONES 0.2% 32803
S&P 500 -0.2% 4145
NASDAQ -0.5% 12658
VIX -1.4% 21.15
Commodity Daily % Change Closing Level
CRUDE OIL 0.5% 89.0
ICE NAT GAS -1.5% 373.6
GOLD -0.8% 1775.5
SILVER -1.3% 19.9
SGX IRON ORE 2.6% 112.0
CMX COPPER 2.0% 355.2
ICE SUGAR 2.2% 17.9
ICE COTTON 1.6% 373.6
CBT WHEAT -0.9% 775.8
BITCOIN 0.5% 23213.5
Rates Markets Yield Daily Change
US 2 YEAR 3.23% 18.2
US 10 YEAR 2.83% 14.0
AUST 2 YEAR 2.62% -4.0
AUST 10 YEAR 3.09% -5.8

Source Bloomberg

Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

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Market Updates

Navigate Global Payments – Markets Today 5th August 2022

 

MARKET WRAP – 5th August 2022

US stock indices were little changed on Thursday with external growth concerns brewing after the BOE’s sustained recession forecast.

 

The Dollar sold off quite heavily Thursday to see the index lose hold of the 106.00 handle amid a move lower in US yields while the risk tone was relatively mixed across asset classes with stocks mixed, oil tumbling and precious metals firmer.

 

The 50bps hike from the BOE was an afterthought for bond traders against its five-quarter

recession call, lifting global government bonds in reaction. The Pound managed to claw back its losses as Dollar selling extended through the US session, with another rise in initial claims data sustaining concerns over the outlook for the labour market – ongoing PLA drills around Taiwan don’t help the Dollar either.

 

US Fed speak saw Mester express her hawkish roots noting rates should go a bit above 4% next year before holding them there for a while until inflation returns closer to its target while she also called for a discussion on MBS sales.

 


TODAY’S KEY RISK EVENTS

RBA Quarterly Statement preview

 

The RBA’s quarterly statement on Monetary Policy is due today and will contain upgraded inflation forecasts. The Bank is likely to assume a higher cash rate profile than in May, which, alongside a weaker global growth outlook, should help to lower the growth outlook. It will be difficult for the staff to not forecast a rising unemployment rate at some stage with that backdrop.

 

 

US NFP Preview

 

The US economy is expected to add 250k nonfarm payrolls in July, with the pace of payroll additions cooling again amid tight labour market conditions.

 

The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.6%. Traders will use the data to shape expectations of how the Fed will set policy at its September meeting.

 

The central bank is in a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting mode, as it focuses on bringing inflation back to target. Accordingly, any upside surprise for the headline and wages will give the central bank scope to move rates higher by a larger increment in September, whereas any downside surprise to the headline may indicate that the slowing growth momentum has crept into Q3, and any downside surprise in the wages component may allow the central bank to revert to a smaller increment of rate hikes.

 

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.69355 0.69885
EUR/USD 1.0154 1.0254
GBP/USD 1.2065 1.222
USD/JPY 132.77 134.42
NZD/USD 0.6267 0.6315
USD/CAD 1.28185 1.2876
USD/CNH 6.7498 6.7678
AUD/JPY 92.5 93.8
AUD/NZD 1.1053 1.1079
DXY 105.668 106.511

 

Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX 0.0% 6975
SHANGHAI COMP 0.8% 3189
NIKKEI 0.7% 27932
FTSE 0.0% 7448
DAX 0.6% 13663
CAC 0.6% 6513
DOW JONES -0.3% 32727
S&P 500 -0.1% 4152
NASDAQ 0.4% 12721
VIX -2.0% 21.50
Commodity Daily % Change Closing Level
CRUDE OIL -2.7% 88.2
ICE NAT GAS 2.4% 379.2
GOLD 0.1% 1791.5
SILVER 0.1% 20.2
SGX IRON ORE 1.2% 107.0
CMX COPPER 0.4% 348.0
ICE SUGAR -1.2% 17.6
ICE COTTON 0.2% 379.2
CBT WHEAT 2.4% 781.8
BITCOIN -0.3% 22516.8
Rates Markets Yield Daily Change
US 2 YEAR 3.04% -3.2
US 10 YEAR 2.69% -1.6
AUST 2 YEAR 2.66% 6.7
AUST 10 YEAR 3.14% 7.0

Source Bloomberg

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Disclaimer: This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711. The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice. Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors. This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith. Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract. This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

 

 

 

 

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Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

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Market Updates

Navigate Global Payments – Markets Today 4th August 2022

 

MARKET WRAP – 4th August 2022

 

  • Stocks rallied for the first time this week, and in a sustained manner, with ISM Services showing a surprise rise while participants unwind geopolitical risk as Pelosi’s Taiwan concludes.

 

  • The stock strength picked up from the cash open in NY and built into the close, taking the SP its highest level since early June, now sitting above 4150. Treasuries flattened after the strong data and hawkish Fed speak that kept pressure on the front-end, although the moves unwound into the close, with particular afternoon strength in the long-end, aiding tech and growth sectors in the equity market

 

  • ISM SERVICES: US ISM services headline surprised to the upside and rose to 56.7 from 55.3, and way above the expected 53.5.

 

 

  • The AUD/USD pair trades around 0.6950, trimming early losses and settling in the green. The aussie benefited from substantial gains in US indexes capping the dollar’s demand. Australian Trade Balance coming up today

 

 

  • DXY traded flat after early strength was unwound into the close, while Fed rhetoric remained hawkish and data was mostly firmer.

 

  • EUR was also little changed after failing to sustain the 1.0200 handle and after the data from the bloc showed firmer producer prices but disappointing retail sales.

 

  • GBP softened which follows the miss on Services PMI data, while focus turns to Thursdays BOE meeting with a 50bps rate hike anticipated.

 

  • JPY continued to weaken and briefly traded at the 134.00 handle against the greenback but then pared some of its losses.

 


TODAY’S KEY RISK EVENTS

To watch for

 

• AU – Jun Trade Balance

• EU – ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin

• UK – BOE Bank Rate

• UK – BOE Bailey Press Conference

• US – Continuing Claims

• US – Initial Jobless Claims

• UK – BOE Decision Maker Panel survey

• US – Fed’s Mester Speaks

 

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.68865 0.6954
EUR/USD 1.0123 1.0212
GBP/USD 1.21 1.2207
USD/JPY 132.295 134.55
NZD/USD 0.62135 0.6281
USD/CAD 1.28325 1.2892
USD/CNH 6.7537 6.7803
AUD/JPY 91.69 93.21
AUD/NZD 1.1064 1.1106
DXY 105.974 106.819

 

Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX -0.3% 6976
SHANGHAI COMP -0.7% 3164
NIKKEI 0.5% 27742
FTSE 0.5% 7446
DAX 1.0% 13588
CAC 1.0% 6472
DOW JONES 1.3% 32813
S&P 500 1.6% 4155
NASDAQ 2.6% 12668
VIX -8.3% 21.94
Commodity Daily % Change Closing Level
CRUDE OIL 4.0% 110.4
ICE NAT GAS -15.4% 148.5
GOLD -0.5% 1811.9
SILVER 2.1% 21.1
SGX IRON ORE -0.6% 126.2
CMX COPPER 1.7% 417.1
ICE SUGAR 2.8% 19.2
ICE COTTON -0.2% 145.2
CBT WHEAT 0.1% 1180
BITCOIN 4.7% 29887
Rates Markets Yield Daily Change
US 2 YEAR 3.08% 2.6
US 10 YEAR 2.71% -3.7
AUST 2 YEAR 2.60% 12.7
AUST 10 YEAR 3.07% 9.7

 

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Disclaimer: This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711. The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice. Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors. This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith. Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract. This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer: The information contained in this email may provide general information. It does not have any regard to the financial situation or needs of any recipient(s) and must not be relied upon as financial product advice to any degree. You should consider seeking independent financial advice before making any decision based on this information. The information in this email and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made, based on the information available at the time of it being sent but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made in this email.

The content of this email is confidential and intended for the recipient(s) specified in the message only. It is strictly forbidden to share any part or all of this message with any third party, without a written consent of the sender. If you received this message by mistake, please reply to this message and follow with its deletion, so that we can ensure only appropriate recipients receive our communications.

Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

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Market Updates

Navigate Global Payments – Markets Today 3rd August 2022

 

MARKET WRAP – 3rd August 2022

 

  • Markets were choppy throughout the APAC, European and US sessions with the anticipated Pelosi trip to Taiwan initially hitting risk assets and supporting havens but her safe arrival saw a brief unwind of the selling pressures in equities to see stocks go positive in the afternoon.

 

  • The AUD/USD pair trades near a daily low of 0.6911, The Australian currency came under strong selling pressure following the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision. The central bank lifted the cash rate by 50 bps as expected, surprising investors with a more conservative statement. Policymakers agreed this was one more step towards normalization but removed the term “extraordinary” stimulus from its policy statement.

 

  • China started to react by implementing military drills around Taiwan while 21 PLA jets entered the southwest ADIZ. Stocks ultimately finished lower with the geopolitical tensions weighing as China starts to respond to the visit and is starting to have domestic impacts.

 

  • Chinese battery giant CATL is reportedly pausing its North American battery plant announcement due to the Taiwan trip. The factory was meant to supply auto giants Ford (F) and Tesla (TSLA).

 

  • Meanwhile, Fed speak has been hawkish where 2022 voter Mester stated she is seeing no signs of inflation easing and that it is not going to come down quickly while reiterating the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation under control, something that Daly also said early in the morning while Evans believes 50bps is reasonable for September but said 75bps remains a Possibility.

 

  • FED: Daly (2024 voter) stated work on inflation is nowhere near almost done, and there is still a long way to go on that task.

 

  • Meanwhile, FED Daly added she is looking at incoming data to decide if we can downshift rate hikes or continue at the current pace. On rates, Daly’s modal outlook is we raise interest rates and hold them there for a while.

 

 

  • The Dollar was bid on its haven demand and the pronounced move higher in yields while a weaker Euro from the impact on the EZ economy on a potential fallout with China was also

 


TODAY’S KEY RISK EVENTS

• NZ – 2Q Unemployment Rate

• NZ – 2Q Pvt Wages Ex Overtime q/q and Jul ANZ Commodity Price m/m

• AU – 2Q Retail Sales Ex Inflation q/q

• CN – Jul PMI Services

• EU – Jun PPI y/y and Jun Retail Sales y/y

• US – Jun Factory Orders and Jul Services Index

 

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.69125 0.7032
EUR/USD 1.0165 1.0294
GBP/USD 1.2164 1.2279
USD/JPY 130.4 133.15
NZD/USD 0.62535 0.6339
USD/CAD 1.28345 1.28865
USD/CNH 6.7494 6.7945
AUD/JPY 90.49 92.59
AUD/NZD 1.1009 1.1099
DXY 105.049 106.312

 

Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX 0.1% 6998
SHANGHAI COMP -2.3% 3186
NIKKEI -1.4% 27595
FTSE -0.1% 7409
DAX -0.2% 13449
CAC -0.4% 6410
DOW JONES -1.2% 32396
S&P 500 -0.7% 4091
NASDAQ -0.2% 12349
VIX 4.9% 23.97
Commodity Daily % Change Closing Level
CRUDE OIL 0.3% 94.2
ICE NAT GAS 3.5% 361.5
GOLD -0.8% 1762.6
SILVER -1.0% 20.0
SGX IRON ORE -0.9% 113.7
CMX COPPER -1.7% 348.1
ICE SUGAR 0.5% 17.7
ICE COTTON 0.8% 361.5
CBT WHEAT -3.3% 774.0
BITCOIN -1.5% 23040.8
Rates Markets Yield Daily Change
US 2 YEAR 3.06% 18.7
US 10 YEAR 2.75% 17.2
AUST 2 YEAR 2.47% 4.0
AUST 10 YEAR 2.98% -8.0

Source Bloomberg

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Disclaimer: This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711. The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice. Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors. This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith. Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract. This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer: The information contained in this email may provide general information. It does not have any regard to the financial situation or needs of any recipient(s) and must not be relied upon as financial product advice to any degree. You should consider seeking independent financial advice before making any decision based on this information. The information in this email and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made, based on the information available at the time of it being sent but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made in this email.

The content of this email is confidential and intended for the recipient(s) specified in the message only. It is strictly forbidden to share any part or all of this message with any third party, without a written consent of the sender. If you received this message by mistake, please reply to this message and follow with its deletion, so that we can ensure only appropriate recipients receive our communications.

Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

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Market Updates

Navigate Global Payments – Markets Today 2nd August 2022

 

MARKET WRAP – 2nd August 2022

 

  • Stocks started the month in a subdued manner with Pelosi’s Taiwan visit stoking geopolitical angst while the US July ISM Manufacturing was mixed.

 

  • The Dollar was weaker to start the week and printed a low of 105.230 as reports suggesting US House Speaker Pelosi is to go ahead with her visit to Taiwan rattled broad risk sentiment, with the Dollar feeling the effect.

 

  • US Manufacturing PMI for July was revised down to 52.2 from an initial reading of 52.3 while Construction Spending for June declined by 1.1% against expectations of a 0.2% gain.

 

  • Of more importance, US ISM Manufacturing for July printed at 52.8, down from 53.0 though better than expectations of 52.0. Key sub-indices were mixed however with a significant drop in Prices Paid, a modest fall  in New Orders while Employment rose more than expected.

 

  • Note also, the maritime administration in Qinglan, South China’s Hainan, issued a warning and prohibited entry to an area in the South China Sea due to military exercises from Tuesday to Saturday, according to Global Times.

 

  • On this, the RBA is expected to hike the Cash Rate Target by 50bps to 1.85% at its meeting on Tuesday with OIS pricing in around an 84% chance for the RBA to deliver a third consecutive 50bps rate increase, which would be the fourth hike in as many meetings since it began lifting rates

 

  • Nonetheless, AUD/USD traded in tight parameters, highlighted by the ranges of 0.6969-0.7046  . Moreover, ahead of the RBA meeting, technicians note the risk of AUD/USD moving lower after the RBA unless the statement leans very hawkish, and techs continue if the RBA is more hawkish than expected then the cross may test the 0.7200/50 area.

 

 


TODAY’S KEY RISK EVENTS

• AU – RBA Cash Rate Target

• AU – Jun Building Approvals m/m

• AU – Home Loan Value m/m

• CA – Jul Manufacturing PMI

• US – Fed’s Evans & Bullard Speak

 

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.6969 0.7048
EUR/USD 1.0195 1.0275
GBP/USD 1.2165 1.22915
USD/JPY 131.6 133.56
NZD/USD 0.6278 0.6352
USD/CAD 1.2767 1.2855
USD/CNH 6.731 6.7905
AUD/JPY 92.26 93.3
AUD/NZD 1.1074 1.1121
DXY 105.241 106.025

 

Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX 0.7% 6993
SHANGHAI COMP 0.2% 3260
NIKKEI 0.7% 27993
FTSE -0.1% 7413
DAX 0.0% 13480
CAC -0.2% 6437
DOW JONES -0.1% 32798
S&P 500 -0.3% 4119
NASDAQ -0.2% 12369
VIX 7.1% 22.84
Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX 0.7% 6993
SHANGHAI COMP 0.2% 3260
NIKKEI 0.7% 27993
FTSE -0.1% 7413
DAX 0.0% 13480
CAC -0.2% 6437
DOW JONES -0.1% 32798
S&P 500 -0.3% 4119
NASDAQ -0.2% 12369
VIX 7.1% 22.84
Commodity Daily % Change Closing Level
CRUDE OIL -4.8% 93.9
ICE NAT GAS -0.8% 349.2
GOLD -0.1% 1772.1
SILVER -0.2% 20.4

Source Bloomberg

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Disclaimer: This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711. The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice. Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors. This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith. Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract. This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer: The information contained in this email may provide general information. It does not have any regard to the financial situation or needs of any recipient(s) and must not be relied upon as financial product advice to any degree. You should consider seeking independent financial advice before making any decision based on this information. The information in this email and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made, based on the information available at the time of it being sent but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made in this email.

The content of this email is confidential and intended for the recipient(s) specified in the message only. It is strictly forbidden to share any part or all of this message with any third party, without a written consent of the sender. If you received this message by mistake, please reply to this message and follow with its deletion, so that we can ensure only appropriate recipients receive our communications.

Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

Categories
Market Updates

Market Wrap – 29th July 2022

 

MARKET WRAP – 29th July 2022

  • The AUD/USD pair found demand ahead of the US close, trading at around 0.6970. Recession-related fears pushed investors into the greenback but soaring US indexes underpinned the pair.

 

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% to 32,529.63, the S&P 500 climbed 1.2% to 4,072.43 and the Nasdaq Composite was 1.1% higher at 12,162.59.

 

  • • Asian equities closed largely higher with the Hang Seng underperforming its peers down 0.2%. The ASX finished Thursday’s session up 1.0%, with minerals leading the gains up 2.4%, as iron ore futures rose ~4%.

 

  • China’s Politburo calls for stabilising of the property market. China vowed to strive for ‘best outcome’ for 2H Economic Growth.

 

  • German preliminary July EU harmonised CPI rose 0.8% m/m, beating expectations of 0.4%, and up from a previous -0.1%.

 

 

  • US Q2 GDP printed at -0.9%, down from -1.6% and well below expectations of +0.4%, the result seeing the US enter a technical recession. Personal Consumption fell from 1.8% to 1.0% to fall short of expectations of 1.2% with Core PCE falling from 5.2% to 4.4% as expected. Also released and weekly jobless claims data was mixed with initial claims at 256k compared to estimates of 250k while continuing claims were 1.359 million to be lower than expectations of 1.386 million.

                                                                      FX

  • The greenback comes under pressure following the release of the flash Q2 GDP figures, although it manages well to keep the trade in the 106.50/60 band so far when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY).

 

  • The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.0180, shrugging off downbeat European data and fears of an EU economic setback. Worse-than-expected US Gross Domestic Product put financial markets upside down on Thursday.

 

  • GBP/USD seems to have steadied above 1.2100 after having tested that level earlier in the day. Although the dollar is struggling to gather strength following the disappointing US data, the pair continues to trade in negative territory.

 

  • USD/JPY is falling like a house of cards after surrendering the crucial support of 136.40 in the early Tokyo session. The pair has lost roughly 1% and is likely to display more losses ahead as the US dollar index (DXY) is heavily dumped on the less hawkish Fed. US GDP awaited.

 


                                                    TODAY’S KEY RISK EVENTS

  • European GDP data will be in focus today with preliminary estimates to be released at market open. The RBA will publish the monthly credit figures for June this morning, which we expect to show some slowing in housing credit growth given both housing prices and turnover are declining.

 

 

                                                                                                          

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.6955 0.70135
EUR/USD 1.0114 1.0234
GBP/USD 1.2105 1.21915
USD/JPY 134.2 136.57
NZD/USD 0.62515 0.6292
USD/CAD 1.2795 1.2869
USD/CNH 6.7348 6.7555
AUD/JPY 93.54 95.59
AUD/NZD 1.1098 1.1179
DXY 106.059 106.975

 

Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX 1.0% 6890
SHANGHAI COMP 0.2% 3283
NIKKEI 0.4% 27815
FTSE 0.0% 7345
DAX 0.9% 13282
CAC 1.3% 6339
DOW JONES 1.0% 32530
S&P 500 1.2% 4071
NASDAQ 1.1% 12163
VIX -3.4% 22.46
 
     
Commodity Daily % Change Closing Level
CRUDE OIL -0.1% 97.2
ICE NAT GAS -11.6% 373.9
GOLD 0.1% 1755.6
SILVER 0.4% 20.0
SGX IRON ORE -0.8% 117.8
CMX COPPER 1.6% 348.6
ICE SUGAR 1.8% 17.7
ICE COTTON 1.2% 373.9
CBT WHEAT 3.3% 816.5
BITCOIN 0.4% 23865.3
 
     
Rates Markets Yield Daily Change
US 2 YEAR 2.87% -12.9
US 10 YEAR 2.67% -11.7
AUST 2 YEAR 2.58% -3.3
AUST 10 YEAR 3.21% -4.3

Source – Bloomberg

   

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Disclaimer: This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711. The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice. Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors. This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith. Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract. This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

 

 

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Level 12, 385 Bourke Street, Melbourne, VIC, 3000.

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this email may provide general information. It does not have any regard to the financial situation or needs of any recipient(s) and must not be relied upon as financial product advice to any degree. You should consider seeking independent financial advice before making any decision based on this information. The information in this email and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made, based on the information available at the time of it being sent but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made in this email.

The content of this email is confidential and intended for the recipient(s) specified in the message only. It is strictly forbidden to share any part or all of this message with any third party, without a written consent of the sender. If you received this message by mistake, please reply to this message and follow with its deletion, so that we can ensure only appropriate recipients receive our communications.

 

Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

Categories
Market Updates

Market Wrap – 28th July 2022

 

MARKET WRAP – 28th July 2022

  • AUD/USD has gained nearly 100 pips and touched its highest level since mid-June above 0.7000 on Wednesday. Following the Fed’s decision to hike the policy rate by 75 bps, FOMC Chairman Powell said they will abandon guidance after a dovish tilt.

 

  • The FOMC raised rates by 75bp as generally expected and made few changes to the accompanying statement. They noted that inflation remained elevated and it was “highly attentive” to inflationary risks with further hikes likely to be appropriate as the Fed was “strongly committed” to bring inflation back to target. Currencies briefly volatile but quickly settling essentially unchanged ahead of Powell’s press conference.

 

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4% to 32,197.59, the S&P 500 climbed 2.6% to 4,023.61, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 4.1% to 12,032.42.

 

  • European equities opened higher across the board with Eurostoxx 50, FTSE100 and DAX all +0.5. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries declined 2bps to 2.79%. WTI crude rose 0.3% to $95.25 a barrel.

 

  • President Biden will speak with Chinese leader Xi tomorrow, amid fresh tensions over Taiwan. The White House is also considering whether to lift some tariffs on Chinese imports to stem inflation.

 

  • US Durable Goods Orders for June rose by 1.9% to come in much higher than expectations of -0.4% though the ex-transport measure was only modestly higher, up 0.3% compared to expectations of 0.2%. Also released and June Wholesale Inventories rose 1.9% to beat estimates of 1.5%. released later in the NY morning, June Pending Home Sales fell by 8.6% MoM and 19.8% YoY, much lower than respective expectations of -1.0% and -13.4%.

 

  • Powell began his press conference by repeating the statement though sounded a little more hawkish in stressing the tightness of the labour market and inflation as “much too high”. However this was soon reversed as he said that the Fed would look for compelling evidence that inflation was coming down, that it would likely to be appropriate to sloe rate hikes and another larger than usual hike would depend on incoming data. He went on to add that rates were now in the range of what the Fed though was neutral, that the effects of earlier rate hikes had not yet been felt and there was evidence of the slowdown that was required to bring inflation down to target. When asked about a US recession, he said that he did not believe the US was there and aim was to avoid one though the path to doing so was narrow.

 

FX

  • DXY gave away part of its weekly advance and returns to the sub-107.00 area after dovish comments from the Fed.

 

  • EUR/USD gathered bullish momentum and climbed to a fresh daily high above 1.0200. FOMC Chairman Powell’s cautious comments on future rate hikes triggered a dollar selloff during the American session.

 

  • GBP/USD has extended its rally to a fresh three-week high above 1.2170 during the American session on Wednesday. Following the Fed’s decision to hike the policy rate by 75 bps, FOMC Chairman Powell’s relatively dovish remarks weighed heavily on the dollar.

 

  • USD/JPY edges higher for the third straight day on Wednesday and climbs to a fresh weekly high. The emergence of fresh USD selling holds back bulls from placing fresh bets and caps the upside. Investors now await the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting before placing fresh directional bets.

 


                                   TODAY’S KEY RISK EVENTS

  • Retail sales data in Australia, US GDP and CPI data in Europe will be the focus for markets today.  We expect significant volatility off the back of these events and will be keeping a close eye on all major currencies.

 

 

                                                                                                          

CURRENCY/INDICIES RANGES

Currency Pair Low High
AUD/USD 0.69205 0.6984
EUR/USD 1.0108 1.025
GBP/USD 1.19645 1.209
USD/JPY 136.265 136.87
NZD/USD 0.6225 0.62805
USD/CAD 1.2816 1.2901
USD/CNH 6.7466 6.7716
AUD/JPY 94.52 95.26
AUD/NZD 1.111 1.1141
DXY 106.201 107.283

 

Equity Index Daily % Change Closing Level
ASX 0.3% 6807
SHANGHAI COMP 0.8% 3277
NIKKEI -0.2% 27655
FTSE 0.0% 7306
DAX -0.9% 13097
CAC -0.4% 6211
DOW JONES -0.7% 31762
S&P 500 -1.2% 3921
NASDAQ -1.9% 11563
VIX 6.1% 24.79
 
     
Commodity Daily % Change Closing Level
CRUDE OIL -1.5% 95.2
ICE NAT GAS 9.1% 404.2
GOLD -0.1% 1717.6
SILVER -0.1% 18.6
SGX IRON ORE -1.7% 110.3
CMX COPPER 1.0% 338.7
ICE SUGAR 0.0% 17.5
ICE COTTON 3.8% 404.2
CBT WHEAT 4.5% 804.8
BITCOIN -0.3% 20877.1
 
     
Rates Markets Yield Daily Change
US 2 YEAR 3.06% 4.1
US 10 YEAR 2.80% 0.6
AUST 2 YEAR 2.71% 3.0
AUST 10 YEAR 3.34% -1.4

Source – Bloomberg

   

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Disclaimer: This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711. The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice. Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors. This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith. Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract. This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.

 

 

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Disclaimer:This material is provided by Navigate Global Payments (Navigate) ACN 615 699 888, AFSL 502711.  The material contains general commentary only and does not constitute investment or any other advice.  Certain types of transactions, like futures, options and high yield securities can be risky, and not suitable for all investors.  This information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Please seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. The information is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation and is provided in good faith.  Navigate does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contributed by a third party. The information is subject to change without notice and Navigate is under no obligation to update the information. The information contained in this material are opinions of the author at the time of writing and does not constitute an offer, recommendation to act, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract.  This information, including any assumptions and conclusions is not intended to be a comprehensive statement of relevant practise or law that is often complex and can change.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forecasts given in this material are predictive in character.